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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Flat Amid Ongoing US-Iran Stalemate in Hormuz

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European natural gas futures were largely flat on Thursday, while still holding onto their gains from earlier this week, as the ongoing stalemate between the US and Iran kept concerns over global gas supplies elevated.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract was unchanged at 46.90 euros ($54.91) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract was up 0.11% to 115.16 British pence ($1.56) per therm.

The strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which handled one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained effectively closed for the 11th week running, after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's response to a US-backed ceasefire proposal earlier this week.

Over the past 24 hours, 17 vessels transited via the Strait, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor. While this marks an uptick compared to recent figures, it is still significantly below the typical daily average of 138 vessels per day before the conflict began.

This comes at a particularly critical juncture for European gas markets, with the region's inventories significantly depleted, at just 35.72% of capacity, compared to 43.1% during the same period last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventory levels were also significantly below the five-year average for this time of year, at 48.4%, according to data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Cyril Widdershoven, a geopolitical strategist at Blue Water Strategy, warned that the markets were still pricing this conflict as being "temporary," while maritime transport prices were showing the opposite, with war-risk premiums, rerouting costs, insurance, inflation, and more, becoming "structurally embedded into the global energy system."

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