-- 米イラン和平協議の停滞が世界のエネルギー市場における地政学的リスクを高めていることを受け、欧州の天然ガス先物価格は月曜日に上昇した。 オランダの期近TTFガス先物価格は0.95%上昇し、1メガワット時あたり45.27ユーロ（53.13ドル）となった。一方、英国のNBP指標価格は0.94%上昇し、1サーモあたり111.62ペンス（1.51ドル）となった。 これは、パキスタンで開催予定だった米イラン間の第2回和平協議が週末に実現しなかったことを受けてのものだ。 ドナルド・トランプ米大統領は土曜日、Truth Socialへの投稿で、スティーブ・ウィトコフ特使とジャレッド・クシュナー義理の息子のイラン訪問を中止した。トランプ大統領は、イラン指導部内の「甚大な」内紛と混乱を強調し、訪問は「時間の無駄」になると述べた。 トランプ大統領はまた、イラン側が対話を望むなら「電話をかけるだけでいい」と述べ、事態の収束を全く予断しないままにした。 世界のLNG輸送量の5分の1を占めるホルムズ海峡は、ホルムズ海峡モニターによると、9週連続で事実上閉鎖された状態が続いている。しかし、過去24時間で19隻の船舶が海峡を通過するなど、航行量は増加傾向にある。 ANZ銀行のシニア商品ストラテジスト、ダニエル・ハインズ氏によると、ホルムズ海峡の長期閉鎖を受け、国内供給を補うため、スポット市場に目を向ける買い手が増えているという。 ハインズ氏はまた、オーストラリアのイクシスLNG施設でのストライキの可能性により、供給状況が悪化する恐れがあると指摘した。 国際エネルギー機関（IEA）は金曜日、カタールのインフラ被害により液化天然ガス（LNG）の拡張計画が少なくとも2年間遅れる可能性があり、2026年から2030年までの潜在供給量が累計で1200億立方メートル減少する恐れがあると警告した。 一方、欧州のLNG在庫は依然として枯渇状態にあり、ガス・インフラストラクチャー・ヨーロッパ（Gas Infrastructure Europe）によると、在庫率はわずか31.47%にとどまっている。これは前年同期の38.14%から低下している。
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US Equity Indexes Mixed Ahead of Trump's Response to Iran's New Peace Proposal
US equity indexes were mixed on Monday, while crude oil futures rose with government bond yields, as investors awaited President Donald Trump's response to Iran's new peace proposal offering safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 24,887.10, and the S&P 500 edged up 0.1% to 7,173.91, each hitting an intraday record high ahead of big-tech quarterly results due mid-week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% to 49,167.79.Iran has made a new offer to stop its attacks on ships in Hormuz in exchange for a full end to the war, including the US's lifting of its naval blockade of Iranian ports and the postponement of nuclear negotiations, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing officials familiar with the matter.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented the offer during his tour of the region and Pakistan over the weekend. Trump discussed the proposal with his national security team on Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. The president earlier said negotiations with Iran could happen over the phone instead of in person."We doubt that the US will go for this, since the US's economic blockade of Iran remains its key 'pressure tactic' in making Iran concede to the US's fundamental demands pertaining to Iran's power," Thierry Wizman, global foreign-exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie, said in a note.West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 2.2% to $96.48, and Brent crude futures advanced 2.6% to $108.09.In precious metals, gold futures fell 1% to $4,695.1, and silver futures declined 1.4% to $75.36.Most US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year up three basis points to 4.34%, and the two-year climbed 2.3 basis points to 3.8%.In company news, Shell (SHEL) agreed to acquire Canadian energy company ARC Resources in a cash-and-stock deal with an enterprise value of US$16.4 billion, as the oil and gas giant looks to increase its exposure to low-cost shale gas and liquids production in Canada's Montney basin.Domino's Pizza (DPZ) reported weaker-than-expected Q1 results, with the company's chief executive officer saying consumer uncertainty and inflation weighed on demand late in the quarter. Shares slumped 8.8%, the worst performer on the S&P 500.Sandisk (SNDK) is expected to post another "strong" quarter and full-year outlook, benefiting from pricing momentum for NAND memory systems, Morgan Stanley said in a note Monday. Shares of Sandisk were up 8.1%, the top gainer on the Nasdaq.In economic news, the Dallas Fed's monthly manufacturing index fell to minus 2.3 in April from minus 0.2 in March, compared with expectations for a 0.8 print. The index indicates faster contraction, in contrast with other regional manufacturing readings already released.
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US Oil Update: Crude Rises as US-Iran Stalemate Keeps Hormuz Disruptions in Focus
Crude oil futures climbed in after-hours trading on Monday as peace talks between the US and Iran stalled and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely limited, keeping global supplies tight.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 2.22% to $96.52 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 2.68% to $108.11/bbl.The world is living on borrowed barrels and on borrowed time until the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research, said, adding that the June contract is up as tentative US-Iran talks faltered to nothing this weekend.US officials are discussing a new Iranian proposal on resolving the war with Tehran, the White House said Monday, as the conflict remains in a stalemate with energy supplies from the region reduced.White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reportedly said that President Trump had convened a meeting of national security officials earlier in the day to discuss the Iranian proposal.She said Trump's "red lines with respect to Iran have been made very, very clear," adding that Trump would address the matter "very soon."The US Treasury Department also said on Monday that Washington will sanction any country conducting business with sanctioned Iranian airlines, including the provision of jet fuel."The Treasury will impose maximum pressure on Iran and will not hesitate to act against any third parties that facilitate or conduct business with Iranian entities," the Treasury said in a social media post on X.Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi also said that Tehran was reviewing President Trump's request for negotiations, according to media reports.ING strategists said the lack of progress means the market is tightening every day, requiring oil prices to reprice higher, as there is little alternative to fill the about 13 million b/d shortfall.Araghchi also met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday to discuss the conflict as negotiations between the sides appear to have stalled.Putin reportedly told Araghchi that Russia would "do everything that serves your interests, the interests of all the people of the region, so that peace can be achieved as soon as possible".The US and Iran have mostly observed a ceasefire since early April, but the double blockade of the Hormuz has ground vessel traffic through the strategic waterway to near zero.Saxo Bank strategists said crude is set to grind higher as Hormuz remains effectively closed, extending disruptions across the Middle East and tightening the availability of critical commodities."Brent crude trades at a three-week high as efforts to revive peace talks have stalled, with an Iranian proposal reportedly calling for nuclear negotiations to be postponed to a later stage," Saxo Bank analysts said.