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EIAによると、ブレント原油先物価格のスプレッドが25ドル/バレルを超えたことは、市場の逼迫と急激な逆行を示唆している。

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-- 米エネルギー情報局（EIA）は金曜日の報告書で、4月初旬、ブレント原油の現物価格が先物価格を1バレル当たり25ドル以上上回る水準まで急騰したと指摘した。これは、ホルムズ海峡における原油輸送の混乱が続く中で、短期的な供給逼迫が深刻化していることを示している。 EIAの報告書によると、「ここ数週間見られるようなブレント原油の大幅な逆ザヤは、ホルムズ海峡閉鎖以降、極めて短期的な市場の供給逼迫を反映している可能性が高い」。 このプレミアムは、現物価格と先物価格のスプレッド拡大を示しており、買い手が即時の原油確保に奔走する中で、即時供給が深刻な逼迫状態にあることを示唆している。 原油の即時引き渡しを反映する現物価格は、ホルムズ海峡の混乱に急激に反応したが、今後数ヶ月の引き渡しを価格とする先物契約は、供給制約が時間とともに緩和されるという期待を織り込んでいるため、反応はそれほど急激ではなかった。 ブレント原油価格とは、ブレント、フォーティーズ、オーセバーグ、エコフィスク、トロールといった北海産原油のバスケット（BFOETとも呼ばれる）を指します。 EIA（米国エネルギー情報局）によると、これらの原油の生産量が徐々に減少したため、多くのブレント価格評価機関は、2023年にミッドランドで価格設定されている米国産WTI原油をブレント原油バスケットに組み込む方法を考案しました。 インターコンチネンタル取引所（ICE）で取引されているブレント原油先物契約は、金融市場および現物市場の参加者の間で、ブレント価格を測る上で最も流動性が高く、広く参照されている指標です。 EIAは、現在4月の取引で6月渡しとなっている期近限月契約は、深刻な混乱期には現物市場の動向から乖離するものの、主要なヘッジおよび価格決定ツールとして機能していると述べています。 一方、日付指定ブレント原油価格は、北海ターミナルから積み出される現物貨物を反映しており、S&Pプラッツ、アーガス、ロイターなどの価格情報機関によって評価されています。 EIA（米国エネルギー情報局）によると、「購入された原油は、買い手によって港湾施設に輸送され、そこから原油精製所へ運ばれて最終製品に加工されます。」 ブレント原油先物市場は通常、逆ザヤで取引されており、「日付指定ブレント原油の現物価格と期近ブレント原油先物価格の差は小さく、プラスになる傾向がある」ことを反映しています。 これは、即時引き渡しの原油1バレルが、2ヶ月後の引き渡しの原油1バレルよりも高値で取引されていることを示しています。 EIAは、「通常、両価格は同様のニュースや市場動向に応じて連動して動く」と述べています。

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