The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) on Thursday said it cut its home sales growth forecasts for this year amid a "tepid" start to the year for the economy and higher odds of a Bank of Canada rate hike later this year to tame inflation resulting from the oil price spike.
Some 474,972 residential properties are forecast to be sold in 2026, representing an increase of 1% over 2025, wrote CREA in a statement. This is lower than the 5.1% increase forecast that it released in January.
The national average home price is forecast to rise 1.5% on an annual basis to $688,955 this year, which is less than the 2.8% growth CREA saw in January.
In 2027, national home sales are forecast to climb a further 2.1% to 485,071 units. That said, this number could be revised above the 500,000 mark should higher interest rates prove unnecessary to fight inflation, added CREA. In January, it estimated a 2027 rise of 3.5%.
In a separate note on Thursday, CREA said Canadian home sales activity was little changed in March.
In summary: National home sales were almost unchanged, down 0.1% month over month; Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 2.3% below March 2025.
The number of newly listed properties edged down by 0.2% month over month; The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) fell 0.4% month over month and was down 4.7% on a year-over-year basis; The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was down 0.8% on a year-over-year basis in March 2026.
There were 167,524 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS Systems at the end of March, up just 1% from a year earlier and 10.6% below the long-term average for that time of the year. Overall supply has generally been declining since May of last year, pointed out CREA.
There were five months of inventory on a national basis at the end of March, unchanged from January and February and right in line with the long-term average for the measure. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller's market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer's market would be above 6.4 months.
The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $673,084 in March, dipping 0.8% from the same month last year.