FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Commerzbank on Overnight News

By

-- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Thursday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries zigzag during the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, weaken in late New York session and Asia. 30-year Treasuries hit 5%. Brent briefly hits US$125/barrel, the highest since Summer 2022. The euro (EUR) falls to $1.166.

Federal Reserve votes 8-4 to hold rates. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan dissent against including easing bias in the statement, Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissents in favor of a cut.

Fed: Chair Jerome Powell sees policy stance in "very good place to wait," thinks rates are close to neutral. Economy is expanding at a solid pace, inflation "misbehaving" partly due to energy prices, Middle East adds high uncertainty.

Fed: Powell plans to stay on as governor after his term as chair ends in May, warns attacks on Fed independence are "unprecedented" and put policy credibility at risk. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls this an "insult" and "violation of norms."

Iran war: President Donald Trump rejects Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, says blockade stays intact. Trump says Iran's economy is "crashing," says talks ongoing via phone, insists no deal will be made without agreement on no nuclear weapon (Axios). Pentagon prepares "short and powerful" strikes to break Hormuz deadlock (Axios). Bessent says "sprinting for the finish line" on Iran, willing to impose secondary sanctions on Iranian oil buyers.

Iran war: Senior Military Adviser Mohsen Rezaee says Iran won't tolerate U.S. naval blockade, warns new round of war would be "disastrous" for the U.S.

Ukraine war: President Trump suggests Russian President Vladimir Putin "might announce a little ceasefire soon."

Canada selected to host new multinational defense bank.

==EUROPE:

EU: The European Union raises its H1 funding target by 10 billion euros to 100 billion and its indicative bond issuance volume for 2026 by 20 billion euros to 180 billion euros.

Inflation: Belgium's consumer price index jumps to 4.01% year over year in April from 1.65%. Dutch HICP dips to 2.5% year over from 2.6%.

Related Articles

Research

Research Alert: Caterpillar Q1: Construction Machinery Restocking Enables Strong Results

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Caterpillar's (CAT) Q1 earnings beat expectations with EPS of $5.47 vs. the consensus of $4.64, as sales surged 22% Y/Y to $17.4B, supported by $2.3B from higher volumes and $426M from pricing. Despite tariff headwinds that pressured operating margins lower by 30 bps, operating profit rose 20% on strong sales growth. Growth stemmed from CAT's cyclical Construction segment rather than the increasingly important Power & Energy business. Management guided tariff costs at $2.2B-$2.4B for 2026. Construction Industries led with sales rising 38% to $7.2B and segment profit surging 50% to $1.54B, with margins expanding 160 bps to 21.4% despite tariff pressures from dealer restocking. Power & Energy maintained momentum with 22% sales growth to $7B; however, margins compressed 170 bps to 20.6% as tariff costs weighed, while power generation sales increased 41% to $2.8B on data center demand. Resource Industries disappointed, with segment profit plummeting 39% to $378M as margins compressed 700 bps to 10.0%.

$CAT
Research

Research Alert: Mo: Q1 Well Ahead Of Expectations; Guidance Unchanged

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Altria (MO) posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.32 vs. $1.23 (+7%), well above the $1.25 consensus. Net revenue rose 5.3% to $4.76B ($180M above consensus) as higher price realizations fully offset lower volumes, which declined 2.3% for smokeable products and 3.1% for oral tobacco. MO maintained 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $5.56-$5.72, the midpoint of which is ahead of the $5.62 consensus and implies Y/Y growth of 2.5%-5.5% from the $5.42 earned in 2025. The company expects more balanced growth between the first and second halves of 2026, with guidance now contemplating moderated e-vapor industry growth impacts and increased macroeconomic uncertainty. MO repurchased $280M in shares and paid $1.8B in dividends during the quarter. Despite the big Q1 beat, MO shares are currently trading flat in pre-market trading, likely reflecting concerns as to why the company didn't raise full-year guidance considering the strength of Q1 results. However, we note that MO has a long history of providing conservative guidance.

$MO
Mining & Metals

OR Royalties Sells Stake in Osisko Metals for US$34.8 Million

OR Royalties (OR.TO) has sold its entire remaining non-core equity position in Osisko Metals (OM.TO), generating US$34.8 million in proceeds, Osisko Gold Royalties said Thursday.Osisko Gold Royalties also provided an update on its portfolio. The expanded and accelerated mine plan at Alamos Gold's (AGI.TO) Island Gold District in Canada is expected to transition a greater proportion of production from OR Royalties' current 1.38% net smelter return royalty (NSR) coverage to OR Royalties' 2.0% and 3.0% NSR royalty boundaries.Benz Mining (BZ.V) is conducting a 250,000 meter drill program at the Glenburgh gold project in Western Australia. OR Royalties holds a 1.08% gross revenue royalty on Glenburgh.Talisker Reosurces (TSK.TO) closed a C$52.1 million bought-deal financing in March as it expanded a 2026 diamond drill program at the Bralorne mine in British Columbia to 105,000 meters from 30,000 m. OR Royalties holds a 1.7% NSR royalty on Bralorne.PMET Resources (PMET.TO) has submitted an environmental and social impact assessment for the Shaakichiuwaanaan project in Quebec. OR Royalties's interests in the project includes a sliding-scale 1.5-3.5% NSR royalty on precious metals and 2.0% on lithium and other products.OceanaGold (OGC.TO) reported high-grade drill results from the Wharekirauponga project in New Zealand, including 14.9 meters at 16.3 grams per tonne gold. OR Royalties owns a 2.0% NSR royalty on the project.

$AGI.TO$BZ.V$OGC.TO$OM.TO$OR.TO$PMET.TO$TSK.TO