-- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Friday highlighted:
Markets: Brent dropped on Middle East ceasefire news. United States Treasury yields nudged higher in Asia, equity futures were higher after S&P and Nasdaq closed at new records. DXY and gold were stable.
Fed: Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran sees no reason to wait on rate cuts, favors three to four reductions this year, says the Fed can reduce its balance sheet by altering bank regulation. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams argues cuts will be needed to prevent a mechanical rise in real rates once inflation comes back to 2%.
AI: White House is working on making Anthropic Mythos artificial intelligence available to U.S. agencies.
Geopolitics: 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire takes effect, President Donald Trump says the U.S. and Iran could agree to a permanent ceasefire "pretty soon," talks could be held this weekend. The United Kingdom and France will host a 40-country summit to discuss naval -- 'freedom of navigation' -- force for the Strait of Hormuz.
==EUROPE:
ECB: European Central Bank Governing Council (GC) member Philip Lane thinks it's "too early to have anything too decisive." GC member Joachim Nagel says the ECB needs to keep options open. GC member Olli Rehn urges calm. GC member Primoz Dolenc argues decline in energy prices has moved the economy back towards the ECB's base case, doesn't see case for hikes. New Bloomberg survey sees single hike in June.
Eurobonds: GC member Isabel Schnabel says now is a "good time" to discuss Eurobonds again, would be "entirely logical" for the European Union to finance European public goods via common debt.
BoE: Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor says holding rates is already a restrictive policy, voting to stay put was to get more time to evaluate the Middle East war effects.
U.K.: United Kingdom Finance Minister Rachel Reeves signals preference for spending cuts over tax hikes or more debt to fund higher defense spending.
Germany: The government halves its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5%, reduces 2027 to 0.9%, and increases inflation assumptions to 2.7% and 2.8% (Reuters).