-- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Wednesday highlighted:
Markets: United States Treasuries rise in the New York session, turn sideways in Asia. E-minis firm amid stronger Asian equities. The euro (EUR) weaker at $1.179. Brent hovers around US$95/barrel.
Fed: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee says consumer "just keeps chugging along" so far. Senate Banking panel schedules Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve chair confirmation hearing on April 21.
U.S.: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says tariffs could be restored to previous levels by July, will press for secondary sanctions on Iran if needed. The U.S. wants to "de-risk not de-couple" from China, China's global trade surplus "getting excessive," economy remains strong. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett says the economy will be strong this year, "can definitely produce 4% growth."
Iran/Geopolitics: The U.S. military confirms blockade of Iranian ports fully implemented. President Donald Trump tells Fox News he views war as "very close to being over." Pakistan pushes for Iran-U.S. talks this week (NYT). Pentagon likely to trim Iran war funding request.
Hormuz: Over 20 commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours. The US Navy isn't escorting vessels but communicating when safe to pass.
==EUROPE:
ECB: President Christine Lagarde thinks it would be a "serious mistake" to say that the European Central Bank can look through the Iran shock today as it is too early to judge, ECB in a good position to respond, won't let inflation expectations become unanchored. Governing Council (GC) member Gabriel Makhlouf says the ECB will take "forceful action" if the shock is persistent. GC member Primoz Dolenc says ECB to raise rates if inflation has a longer-lasting effect.
European countries draft postwar plan to free up the Strait of Hormuz without the U.S., likely to include mine-clearing vessels. The plan doesn't include the U.S., would involve Germany. European countries accelerate NATO fallback plan in case of US withdrawal (WSJ).
France: Finance ministry still targets 3% deficit in 2029.