Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Monday highlighted:
Markets: United States Treasury yields opened higher across the curve in Asia, slowly started consolidating in early trading. Long-end Japanese government bonds were under pressure. Equity futures were down across the board. Brent was up 7% to above US$102/barrel. Euro (EUR) dropped below $1.17.
Federal Reserve seeking details on U.S. banks' exposure to private credit firms. FDIC rescinds President Joe Biden-era guidance on bank fees.
U.S.: President Donald Trump has promised mass pardons to top administration officials before leaving office (WSJ sources).
U.S./Iran peace talks in Pakistan fail after 21 hours of discussions. The U.S. Navy will begin a blockade of ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz from 10 a.m. ET on Monday. President Trump weighs limited military strikes against Iran (WSJ sources), says the U.S. could hit desalination/power plants.
U.S./Iran: U.S. intelligence indicates China is shipping weapons to Iran (CNN), for which President Trump threatens 50% tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has discussed with Trump steps if war lasted eight to 12 weeks, sees Asia and Europe most vulnerable to oil price rise (WSJ sources).
Saudi Arabia restores full seven million barrels per day pumping capacity on the East-West pipeline.
==EUROPE:
Germany: Debt brake is reform unlikely under current government term (Bild). The meeting among coalition leaders on energy prices ended late on Sunday without announcement.
France: Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu says France to double its electrification investment to 10 billion euros by 2030, replace 85TWh of natural gas with electricity by 2030, energy aid for households must be targeted.
Hungary: Peter Magyar's Tisza party projected to win two-thirds majority, ending Prime Minister Viktor Orban's 16-year term.
Ratings: Moody's confirms France at Aa3/negative. DBRS confirms Lithuania at A (high)/stable, Malta at A (high)/stable. S&P confirms the United Kingdom at AA/stable, German state of Hesse at AA+/stable.