Citigroup's (C) medium-term target for return on tangible common equity should be between 14% and 15%, based on investor feedback, UBS said in a Wednesday note.
Further, investors are expecting an aspirational long-term target of over 15%, especially when the company is compared with its peers, UBS said. Compared with sell-side consensus of 12.8%, taken from only six analyst estimates, the brokerage considers the expectations of buy-side investors as "more critical."
In order to boost its return on tangible common equity, Citigroup should reduce its Common Equity Tier 1, which sits at 12.7%, 110 basis points above the regulatory minimum. UBS notes that peers such as Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS) have a buffer range of 50 basis points at the low end.
Global Systemically Important Bank recalibration is expected to lower Citigroup's surcharge to 3%. Assuming this, a stress capital buffer range of 2.5% to 3%, and a 50 basis-point management buffer, the company's 2028 consensus net income would imply a return on tangible common equity of 13.1% to 14.4%, according to the note.
UBS's rating on the company's stock is neutral with a price target of $134.
Price: $128.25, Change: $+0.24, Percent Change: +0.19%