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Chinese Producer Prices Return to Inflation After 41 Months of Declines

-- Chinese producer prices ended 41 consecutive months of declines in March, returning to inflation for the first time since 2022.

Factory-gate prices rose 0.5% last month, reversing the 0.9% decline in February, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Friday.

Median estimates by analysts polled by Bloomberg and Reuters saw inflation of 0.4%.

Analysts at ING believe that the return to inflation in producer prices could translate to reflationary momentum across the Chinese economy.

Producer price inflation was most evident in a 5.2% year-over-year increase in the oil and gas extraction industry prices, up from a 14.8% fall in the first two months, ING analysts said.

However, Macquarie analysts say the PPI rebound is a one-off cost shock rather than reflation, also due to oil prices.

Non-ferrous metals, computer and telecom, and coal and steel producer prices also drove upward PPI, Macquarie said.

Meanwhile, the consumer price index, a measure of inflation, rose 1% year over year in March, slower than the 1.3% increase in February.

Chinese consumer price increases were slower than the 1.2% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, went up 1.1%.

The deceleration was due to normal price declines following the Chinese New Year festivities, ING said.

Pork prices slid 11.5% year over year, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

On a monthly basis, CPI ticked down 0.7%, the statistics bureau said.

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