FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

China Keeps Key Lending Rates Steady in April

By

China kept its benchmark lending rates --- loan prime rate or LPR --- unchanged in April after posting a better-than-expected economy during the first quarter despite the ongoing Middle East conflict.

The People's Bank of China held the one-year LPR at 3% and the LPR of five years or more at 3.5% for the 11th consecutive month, according to a Monday press release from the central bank.

Analysts from ING expected no changes to the LPR, following the country's first-quarter economy, which remained within the year's target range of 4.5% and 5%.

Official gross domestic product grew 5% during the period, according to last week's data from the National Bureau of Statistics. It came after inflationary growth in March slightly eased 1% from the 1.3% hike in February.

Yu Song, UBS Securities' China economist, said the government might be taking a "wait-and-see" approach as it takes time to evaluate the impact of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, according to a Sunday report from CNBC.

In an April 16 note, ING's chief economist for greater China, Lynn Song, said China would likely need to introduce more financial stimulus if external demand starts to weaken.

Official data from the NBS showed that exports in March rose 2.5% but have been a drag compared to the 21.8% surge in the period between January and February.

Still, China outperformed its international counterparts amid the oil price shock brought by the Iran war, ING's Song said.

"This came despite widening U.S.-China yield spreads. The main factor in the near term is likely the People's Bank of China signaling tolerance for further appreciation after briefly pushing back on it before the Iran war," Song said. "Sentiment may also have been buoyed by renewed talk of a potential 'petroyuan' emergence after reports that Iran wished to collect tolls on passage through the Strait of Hormuz in CNY (renminbi)."

Related Articles

US Markets

Nasdaq, S&P 500 Hit New Peaks as Iran Reopens Hormuz

The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 notched new peaks on Friday after Iran announced a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices tumbling.The Nasdaq rose 1.5% to 24,468.5, while the S&P 500 added 1.2% to 7,126.1, notching record-high closing levels for the third straight day. The Nasdaq extended its advance to a 13th consecutive session, its longest winning streak since 1992, according to CNBC.The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.8% to 49,447.9.Barring energy and utilities, all sectors were in the green, led by consumer discretionary's 2% jump.The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 saw their biggest weekly gains since May last year, rising 6.8% and 4.5%, respectively, this week. The Dow advanced 3.2% this week, the most since June.West Texas Intermediate crude oil sank 11% to $84.68 a barrel in Friday late-afternoon trade, while Brent lost 8.7% to $90.71."In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire," Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said Friday in a post on the X platform.Vessels must move through a "coordinated route" announced by Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization, Araghchi said.On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said Lebanon and Israel agreed to a 10-day ceasefire that seeks to pause hostilities between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. That was a key sticking point in peace negotiations between the US and Iran."Araghchi's statement represents a significant and unexpected diplomatic opening," Artem Abramov, deputy head of analysis at Rystad Energy, said in a note e-mailed to. "The Strait of Hormuz has been the single most consequential variable in global oil markets since the conflict escalated, and any credible signal that the chokepoint may reopen, even temporarily, is a market-moving development of the first order."Trump welcomed the reopening of the strait, though he said the US naval blockade of Iran's ports will continue until "our transaction with Iran is 100% complete.""The news that Iran will allow traffic to resume through the Strait of Hormuz could be an important turning point and the catalyst for upgrades to our economic forecasts, but not immediately," Oxford Economics said in a note. "The development increases the risk that a more lasting deal could be brokered, reducing the likelihood of extreme downside scenarios crystalizing."Shares of cruise line operators and airlines jumped, with Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) up 7.3%, the best performer on the S&P 500, followed United Airlines (UAL) and Carnival (CCL). Southwest Airlines (LUV) rose 5.1%.US Treasury yields were lower, with the 10-year rate down seven basis points at 4.25% and the two-year rate dropping 7.4 basis point to 3.71%.In company news, Netflix (NFLX) shares tumbled 9.7%, the third-worst performer on the S&P 500.The streaming giant late Thursday posted first-quarter revenue above Wall Street's estimates. However, the company disappointed investors by maintaining its margin outlook even though its cost base apparently would have benefited from its decision to walk away from a deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), MoffettNathanson said in a note Friday.Gold was last up 1.3% at $4,871.10 per troy ounce, while silver gained 3.4% to $81.40 per ounce.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$CCL$LUV$NFLX$RCL$UAL$WBD
US Markets

Industrial Demand Holds Strong Despite Iran War, Truist Securities Says

The industrial sector likely saw strong demand in the first quarter, despite concerns around the impact of the Iran war, Truist Securities said in a note on Friday.The broader momentum is attributable to improved demand in machinery markets and growth across data centers, aerospace, and heating, ventilation and air conditioning, according to the note."Rising input costs tied to the Iran war are manageable in the short term," Truist analysts, including Jamie Cook, said.While there are worries tied to tariffs, "we would be more concerned about a prolonged war with Iran and the potential macro repercussions," Cook said.Oil prices plunged on Friday after Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel. Energy prices have surged following the US-Israel war with Tehran. US President Donald Trump has expressed optimism over the prospects of a deal with Iran ahead of the expiration of a two-week ceasefire between the two sides."We see a positive setup for first-quarter prints across machinery, multi-industry and infrastructure services," Cook wrote.Within the machinery industry, the brokerage maintained 2026 estimates for Deere (DE), AGCO (AGCO) and CNH Industrial (CNH) amid order momentum. Caterpillar (CAT) is expected to deliver another strong quarter, Cook said.Infrastructure service companies AECOM (ACM) and Jacobs (J) must convince investors with sustainable organic growth and margin improvement, though Jacobs is seen posting a solid quarter.Multi industry player Parker-Hannifin (PH) is on track for continued earnings beats and raises, with signs that industrial organic growth is improving, Cook said. AMETEK (AME) is recovering and holds capacity for more deals, according to the research note.AMETEK completed its acquisition of Faro Technologies in 2025.

$ACM$AGCO$AME$CAT$CNH$DE$J$PH
US Markets

Equities Rally Intraday, Oil Plunges After Iran Declares Hormuz Strait Open

US benchmark equity indexes advanced intraday, while oil prices slumped after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" following a ceasefire deal between Lebanon and Israel.The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.9% at 49,507.9 after midday Friday. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.4% to 24,447.8, while the S&P 500 rose 1.2% to 7,126.6. The two indexes notched their second consecutive record-high closes in the previous session.Barring energy and utilities, all sectors were in the green intraday Friday, led by consumer discretionary's 2.7% jump.West Texas Intermediate crude oil sank 11% to $84.20 a barrel, while Brent lost 9% to $90.44."In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire," Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said Friday in a post on the X platform.Vessels must move through a "coordinated route" announced by Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization, Araghchi said.On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said Lebanon and Israel agreed to a 10-day ceasefire that seeks to pause hostilities between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. That was a key sticking point in peace negotiations between the US and Iran.Trump welcomed the reopening of the strait, though he said on Truth Social that the US naval blockade of Iran's ports will continue until "our transaction with Iran is 100% complete.""The news that Iran will allow traffic to resume through the Strait of Hormuz could be an important turning point and the catalyst for upgrades to our economic forecasts, but not immediately," Oxford Economics said in a note. "The development increases the risk that a more lasting deal could be brokered, reducing the likelihood of extreme downside scenarios crystalizing."A quarter-long closure of the strait will likely push US inflation higher by 0.6 percentage point this year, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said in an article Friday.Shares of cruise line operators and airlines surged intraday, with Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) up 8.2%, the best performer on the S&P 500, followed by Carnival's (CCL) 7.8% gain. United Airlines (UAL) jumped 7.6%, while Southwest Airlines (LUV) climbed 6.5%, among the top gainers on the index.US Treasury yields were lower intraday, with the 10-year rate down 6.3 basis points at 4.25% and the two-year rate dropping 7.8 basis point to 3.69%.In company news, Netflix (NFLX) shares were down 10% intraday, the second-worst performer on the S&P 500.The streaming giant late Thursday posted first-quarter revenue above Wall Street's estimates. However, the company disappointed investors by maintaining its margin outlook even though its cost base apparently would have benefited from its decision to walk away from a deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), MoffettNathanson said in a note Friday.Gold was up 1.5% at $4,881.40 per troy ounce, while silver gained 3.8% to $81.71 per ounce.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$CCL$LUV$NFLX$RCL$UAL$WBD