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Cheesecake Factory has 'Intriguing' Setup Against Consensus in 2026, Oppenheimer Says

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Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) has an "intriguing" setup against consensus in 2026 where same-store sales and EPS forecasts now tilt conservatively, Oppenheimer said Tuesday.

According to the note, the company's core customer remains unaffected amid macro pressures impacting the broader industry. This dynamic, along with Oppenheimer's analysis of consensus, identifies a strong setup against Street's Q1 and Q2 same-store sales forecasts of 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.

The brokerage believes risk/reward skews favorably against Street's full-year 2026 same-store-sales forecast of 1.1%. Quarterly SSS forecasts possibly discount healthier underlying momentum, new company-specific drivers, and easier comparisons, the brokerage added.

Management's Q1 guidance implied SSS mid-point of 1% and EPS near $1. Meanwhile, Oppenheimer forecasts 1.0% SSS and EPS of $1.01, versus Street consensus of 0.6% and $1, respectively.

The brokerage slightly lifted its 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates to to $4.04 and $4.48 from $4.03 and 4.46, respectively.

The company is scheduled to report Q1 results on April 29.

Oppenheimer maintained an outperform rating on Cheesecake Factory and raised the price target to $72 from $68.

Price: $61.90, Change: $-0.24, Percent Change: -0.39%

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