-- UBS said Friday that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney may propose changes that could speed up approvals for Canadian energy and pipeline projects.
According to a CBC report cited by UBS, Carney's government may introduce a revised approval framework later this week that would shorten review timelines for major resource developments to about two years.
The proposed changes could replace parts of the current review structure established under Bill C-5, while still preserving mandatory consultation requirements with indigenous communities, UBS said.
UBS noted that the federal government is also negotiating with Alberta under last year's memorandum of understanding, which includes plans to advance a new pipeline connecting Canada with the West Coast.
Cenovus Energy said recent geopolitical developments reinforce the importance of reliable and affordable energy supplies, while Canada's oil sands remain critical for jobs, economic stability, and long-term energy security, according to UBS.
Cenovus also argued that restrictive Canadian regulations have pushed investment and employment outside the country without significantly reducing global oil demand, the report added.
Canadian Natural Resources said it continues working with provincial and federal governments to create a competitive fiscal framework capable of attracting investment into future oil sands expansion projects.
The company said stronger policy support could help increase production growth, create high-paying jobs, and improve broader economic activity if Canada remains competitive against international investment opportunities.
UBS said expanded pipeline capacity from Canada into US refining markets would benefit oil sands producers, including Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, and Cenovus Energy, as well as refiners and midstream operators across North America.
Oil sands producers maintain a structural advantage because their projects experience significantly lower production declines than shale operations, although pipeline bottlenecks have historically limited additional output growth.
UBS expects Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin crude production to increase by roughly 500,000 barrels per day before the end of the decade as pipeline connectivity improves between supply and refining markets.
Growing geopolitical tensions are also encouraging US refiners to reduce reliance on Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries crude imports, making heavy Canadian oil an increasingly attractive alternative, UBS said.