There were no big surprises to Canada's latest employment data, with job gains of 14,100 in March, just a tad below the consensus estimate of 15,000, said Rosenberg Research after Friday's Labour Force Survey (LFS).
This recouped but a fraction of the 83,900 plunge in February, the research noted, before adding: "Only if you believe that "flat is the new up" can anyone possibly interpret the data positively, because employment in Canada has virtually stagnated since last June -- a stretch of weakness Canada hasn't seen since late 2020, when people thought the [COVID-19] pandemic would never end."
After the sharp 108,400 hit to full-time employment in February, the research noted, there was a further loss of 1,100 this past month. It says a whole lot that the number of full-time positions is down 40,000 over the past six months -- with a notable labor market shift towards part-time employment, which is up more than 80,000 over this time frame, Rosenberg said, noting the unemployment rate stayed at a "lofty" 6.7%, and the employment-to-population ratio also stagnated at 60.6%.
In terms of the sectors that weighed on the jobs headline, the research noted wholesale/retail trade lost 6,700 jobs and is down in four of the past five months, while hotels/restaurants let go of 10,000 employees and are riding a four-month losing streak. When consumer-facing industries are firing people to this extent, Rosenberg pointed out it definitely knows that Canadian demand is in the "dumpster."
According to the research, what the banks see that the macro bulls don't is an interesting dichotomy, because the financial sector fired a net 11,200 workers in March after paring the staff load by 8,700 in February -- this was the sharpest successive decline since September 2023 and before that, try April 2020.
Suffice it to say that if there is one certainty, it is that the Canadian economy lacks a vibrant jobs market. In fact, "sclerotic" is more like it, it added.