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BMO表示,在3月加拿大薪資意外成長後,將密切關注加拿大薪資走勢。

-- 蒙特婁銀行(BMO)表示,加拿大3月的勞動力調查(LFS)顯示,薪資年增4.7%,創下自2024年10月以來的最高增速,這數字令人意外。 該銀行指出,自那時以來的大約一年半時間裡,就業市場顯著放鬆,首先是由於過去的貨幣緊縮政策,然後是由於與美國的貿易戰帶來的經濟逆風——所有這些都發生在移民政策發生重大轉變的背景下。 BMO表示,在這樣的背景下,單月薪資成長加速0.7個百分點確實引人注目。 加拿大統計局解釋說,這是由於職業組成和工作年限的變化而產生的統計異常。換句話說:薪資加速成長是因為更多的人從事了更高薪的工作,或者工作時間更長,因此獲得了更高的收入。考慮到這些因素,年增長率為3.6%,與過去四個月相比變化不大。 該銀行表示,這與一些宏觀趨勢相符:近期淨移民外流對低收入工作的勞工——換句話說,就是臨時外籍勞工和學生——的影響尤其嚴重。 BMO指出,加之人口老化,這也可能導致員工群體向那些工作年資較長的人群傾斜。 該銀行補充道,儘管如此,這種轉變在上個月突然發生仍然令人驚訝。 BMO表示將密切關注這一趨勢是否會持續。目前看來,實質薪資成長似乎比公佈的成長率低。

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