April US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 65,000, Unemployment Rate Seen Remaining at 4.3%

-- US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by only 65,000 in April after a 178,000-jobs gain in March, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%.

The April employment report is due to be released at 8:30 am ET Friday.

Layoffs intentions rose in April after an increase in March, according to a Challenger, Gray and Christmas report, led by the technology sector due to increased use of AI.

The BLS's private payrolls count, which excludes government payrolls, is expected to increase by 75,000 in April after a jobs increase of 186,000 in March. ADP reported that its measure of private payrolls rose by 109,000 jobs in April after an increase of 61,000 in the previous month, led by an increase in education and health services payrolls.

Initial claims were higher in the mid-April employment survey week compared with mid-March survey week, but insured claims were lower.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported that 34% of small business owners continued to have problems filling current positions in April, up from 32% in March.

On the consumer side, the percentage of respondents saying that jobs were "plentiful" in the Conference Board's April consumer confidence survey fell by 0.1 percentage points to 27.3% while those saying jobs were "hard to get" decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 19.8%, slightly widening the gap between the two measures.

Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% in April after a 0.2% gain in March, while the year-over-year growth rate is expected to accelerate to 3.8% from 3.5%. The average workweek is expected to remain at 34.2 hours.

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Small Storage Injection

US natural gas futures erased early losses and maintained higher prices in after-hours trade on Thursday after government data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in domestic gas inventories, triggering short covering and reinforcing expectations that the spring supply-demand balance may be tightening modestly.Both the front-month Henry Hub futures and the continuous contract rose 1.90% to $2.782 per million British thermal units.The US Energy Information Administration said natural gas inventories for the week ended May 1 rose by 63 billion cubic feet, below analyst expectations for a 72-80 Bcf build and under the five-year average increase of 77 Bcf for the week.The bullish storage surprise prompted buying in front-month contracts after futures had traded lower ahead of the report, Barchart said.Despite the smaller injection, supply levels remain ample. US gas inventories were 2.8% above year-ago levels and 6.7% above the five-year seasonal average.The Energy Buyers Guide said the market will likely be focused on "whether this storage miss was a one-off or a harbinger of a more durable shift in the underlying fundamental balance".Analysts at Gelber & Associates said the price lift "reinforced the idea that the spring balance is not quite as loose as consensus had assumed," the firm said, adding that the market still viewed the move as a near-term adjustment rather than the start of a sustained rally, noting that elevated inventories continue to limit upside potential for winter contracts."The rally is doing more to firm up summer risk than to meaningfully reprice next winter when storage remains above the five-year average," the firm said.Analysts also pointed to competing forces in the broader market, with strong LNG exports supporting prices while robust domestic production continues to weigh on sentiment.According to Barchart, citing data from BNEF, US lower-48 dry gas production on Thursday was estimated at 110.9 Bcf per day, up 4.5% from a year earlier. Demand across the lower 48 states was estimated at 71.0 Bcf/d, up 10.2% year over year.Flows to US LNG export terminals were estimated at 17.7 Bcf/d, down 5.9% from the prior week due to maintenance slowdowns.Gelber said the market can pop on a bullish storage surprise but still "needs either sustained heat, a more persistent slowdown in supply growth, or a string of smaller injections to make the move stick beyond the near-term contracts."

April US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 65,000, Unemployment Rate Seen Remaining at 4.3%

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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Small Storage Injection
US natural gas futures erased early losses and maintained higher prices in after-hours trade on Thursday after government data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in domestic gas inventories, triggering short covering and reinforcing expectations that the spring supply-demand balance may be tightening modestly.Both the front-month Henry Hub futures and the continuous contract rose 1.90% to $2.782 per million British thermal units.The US Energy Information Administration said natural gas inventories for the week ended May 1 rose by 63 billion cubic feet, below analyst expectations for a 72-80 Bcf build and under the five-year average increase of 77 Bcf for the week.The bullish storage surprise prompted buying in front-month contracts after futures had traded lower ahead of the report, Barchart said.Despite the smaller injection, supply levels remain ample. US gas inventories were 2.8% above year-ago levels and 6.7% above the five-year seasonal average.The Energy Buyers Guide said the market will likely be focused on "whether this storage miss was a one-off or a harbinger of a more durable shift in the underlying fundamental balance".Analysts at Gelber & Associates said the price lift "reinforced the idea that the spring balance is not quite as loose as consensus had assumed," the firm said, adding that the market still viewed the move as a near-term adjustment rather than the start of a sustained rally, noting that elevated inventories continue to limit upside potential for winter contracts."The rally is doing more to firm up summer risk than to meaningfully reprice next winter when storage remains above the five-year average," the firm said.Analysts also pointed to competing forces in the broader market, with strong LNG exports supporting prices while robust domestic production continues to weigh on sentiment.According to Barchart, citing data from BNEF, US lower-48 dry gas production on Thursday was estimated at 110.9 Bcf per day, up 4.5% from a year earlier. Demand across the lower 48 states was estimated at 71.0 Bcf/d, up 10.2% year over year.Flows to US LNG export terminals were estimated at 17.7 Bcf/d, down 5.9% from the prior week due to maintenance slowdowns.Gelber said the market can pop on a bullish storage surprise but still "needs either sustained heat, a more persistent slowdown in supply growth, or a string of smaller injections to make the move stick beyond the near-term contracts."

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