-- According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), seasonally adjusted home sales jumped by 6.1% month over month in April, the second monthly increase in a row following five consecutive contractions, said National Bank of Canada.
Despite this improvement, transaction levels in Toronto remain "very weak," comparable with what was observed during the pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis, noted the bank. In fact, sales were still 26.5% below their historical average.
After a difficult fall and winter, the uptick in sales over the past two months is certainly welcome, but it's still too early to say whether this marks the beginning of a sustained
recovery.
Several factors will continue to act as headwinds for the Toronto housing market, including ongoing commercial and geopolitical uncertainty, rising inflation -- consequently higher fixed-rate mortgage rates -- and the demographic slowdown, stated National Bank.
Another factor that may be positive for first-time buyers but negative for the overall market's momentum is the decline in prices we have seen in Toronto in recent years, pointed out National Bank.
In addition to the payment shock, many homeowners have faced since 2025 when renewing their mortgages -- which has limited their financial ability to move to a better home -- property prices in Toronto have fallen by 10% over the past year, 5% over the past three years, and have risen by only 2% over the past five years, marking the lowest price increase ever recorded over this period.
As a result, buyers in recent years have built up very little, if
any, equity in their homes, which could limit their plans for future transactions and slow down the market's velocity, added the bank.