-- 週一,馬來西亞棕櫚油期貨價格小幅上漲,芝加哥和大連交易所的競爭對手大豆油價格也出現上漲,儘管出口疲軟。 馬來西亞衍生性商品交易所(Bursa Malaysia Derivatives)5月原棕櫚油合約上漲1.66%,至每噸4,529馬來西亞林吉特(1,144.84美元)。 6月合約上漲1.74%,至每噸4,565林吉特。 根據Phillip Capital和Trading Economics報告,貨運調查員估計,4月前20天馬來西亞的棕櫚油出貨量較上月下降了25.6%至25.8%。 價格報告機構Fastmarkets的分析顯示,由於近期產品成本和運費飆升,馬來西亞對大多數區域目的地的出口在4月上半月出現下降,其中對中東的出口降幅最大。 據該機構引用Intertek Testing Services的數據,4月1日至15日期間,出口量較上月下降324,724公噸至580,018公噸,主要原因是中東地區的出口量減少了114,650公噸。 據報道,對印度的出口量從150,600公噸減少至102,300公噸,而對中國的出口量則從67,550公噸減少至54,760公噸。 印度的採購量可能會在季節性需求到來之前反彈,但由於經濟狀況不佳,中國的進口量可能仍將面臨壓力。 中國價格報告機構MySteel表示,在中國,“國內進口利潤率仍然嚴重倒掛,導致船舶採購量很少,甚至有兩艘船取消了訂單,但港口庫存仍然很高。” MySteel表示,棕櫚油市場基本面整體走軟,出口下降而產量上升,形成「供過於求」的局面。 Fastmarkets指出,馬來西亞棕櫚油產量在第一季經歷季節性低點後預計將有所回升,這可能會限制國內庫存的下降。 儘管如此,如果原油價格持續走強,提振生質燃料需求,棕櫚油價格可能仍將得到支撐。 印尼計劃從7月1日起將生質柴油計畫的比例從目前的40%提高到50%,而馬來西亞正在努力將生質柴油比例從目前的10%提高到12%和15%,但具體時間表尚未確定。
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