-- Canada updates the consumer price index for March at 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday, said Scotiabank.
Consensus sits at 1.1% month-over-month seasonally unadjusted (NSA), noted the bank, which estimates a 0.9% figure.
The range is from 0.9-1.3%, pointed out Scotiabank. Estimates for the year-over-year rate run from 2.4% (Scotiabank) to 2.8%, with a median of 2.6%.
Analysts are all high with slight variations on a gasoline-and fuel-driven spike as the main driver of the month-over-month gain, plus typical seasonality, stated the bank. The year-over-year rate is also buoyed by resetting the base effect from last April's elimination of the consumer portion of the carbon tax.
The soft patch on core inflation measures was viewed as probably temporary even before the Iran war and the potential pass-through of higher commodities entered the picture, added Scotiabank. Core industrial prices were already surging and led core CPI inflation.
The dip in core measures over recent months is hardly unprecedented-- early 2024 was another such period, according to the bank. The measures aren't all aligned as the traditional core has often been "warmer."