-- Ukrainian drone strikes on Baltic and Black Sea infrastructure have significantly degraded Russia's oil export capacity, according to a Vortexa note from Friday.
Aerial strikes have knocked about 800,000 barrels a day of Russian seaborne crude and condensate off the market since late March, it said.
Clean refined product exports dropped by 400,000 b/d, while diesel and gasoil exports remain 200,000 b/d below year-ago levels, the note added.
With key refineries like Nizhny Novgorod offline and port infrastructure damaged, Russia is struggling to capitalize on high global oil prices despite strong Asian demand, Vortexa analysts said.
Russia has failed to divert surplus crude-unprocessed due to refinery outages into the export market. Vortexa attributed this to constrained loading terminals in the Baltic and Black Seas.
While Primorsk remains stable, Ust-Luga crude exports are facing a 200,000 b/d deficit compared to 2025 levels, it noted.
Vortexa noted that loading delays and damage at the Transneft Baltic terminal signal immediate vulnerability, preventing Moscow from fully capitalizing on tightened global energy balances as the conflict continues.