-- 路透社周五报道称，就在伊朗确认霍尔木兹海峡重新开放前几分钟，投资者押注7.6亿美元油价下跌。 报道指出，这些交易发生在伊朗宣布重新开放霍尔木兹海峡前约20分钟，这再次表明，在中东冲突的关键进展发生前，投资者会进行大规模、精准的仓位布局。 根据伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）的数据，投资者在格林尼治标准时间12:24至12:25期间卖出了7990份布伦特原油期货合约，价值约7.6亿美元。 报道称，伊朗外长于格林尼治标准时间12:45在X频道表示，在停火期间，所有商船都可自由通过霍尔木兹海峡。 消息公布后，原油价格大幅下跌，几分钟内跌幅高达11%，市场对供应担忧的缓解做出了反应。 报告指出，近几周来出现了类似的交易模式，引发了政策制定者和法律专家对动荡的石油市场中潜在信息优势的担忧。 报告指出，在4月7日美伊停火声明发布前，约有价值9.5亿美元的交易达成。 据报道，3月23日，在唐纳德·特朗普总统推迟对伊朗能源基础设施的打击计划前几分钟，投资者抛售了约5亿美元的石油，导致油价下跌约15%。 报告称，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）目前正在调查这些交易，以确定其是否与提前获知政策变化有关。 （市场动态新闻来源于与全球市场专业人士的对话。这些信息据信来自可靠来源，但可能包含传闻和推测。准确性无法保证。）
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Sectors
Crude Oil Prices Rise on Stalled U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
Crude oil prices rose on Monday as talks to end the war between the U.S. and Iran remain frozen and flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz continue to be disrupted.Brent crude at last look gained 2.7% to US$108.17/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.4% to $96.63/barrel. The U.S. and Iran appear to still be far apart on issues including Iran's nuclear ambitions and the reopening of the strait, Reuters said in a Monday report."The diplomatic stand-off means that every day 10-13 million barrels of oil fail to get to the international market, worsening an already tight oil balance. Therefore, there is only one direction for oil prices to go," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga as saying.Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecasts to $90/barrel for Brent and $83/barrel for WTI, citing reduced output from the Middle East, the report said.
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Commodities
Japan Resorts to More Coal, Nuclear During Energy Crisis Sidelines Renewables, Says IEEFA
Japan is leaning on higher nuclear output and ramping up use of coal in power generation as contingency measures in the face of the global energy crisis, but these measures are simultaneously smothering renewables, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said on Monday.Temporary increased use of coal was decided upon to reduce the need for now-scarce LNG while the restart of some nuclear power plants is also providing additional resilience to supply shocks which have hit Asian nations hardest.IEEFA said this risks displacing domestic renewable energy which can supply just as much energy security but lower cost and it could also increase curtailment and undermine investment in more renewables, up-ending progress on decarbonization.Most of Japan's coal imports, about 71%, come from Australia, making it a safe option that reduces exposure to disrupted Middle Eastern logistics, the IEEFA report noted.But a shortage of diesel for plant operations at J-Power's Matsuura 2 gigawatt coal-fired power station slashed its output by 50% while the JFE Steel Fukuyama facility was halted over a shortage of heavy oil, underscoring that coal is not fully detached from oil and gas's geopolitical risk.Japan typically imports 4 million tons of LNG that pass through the Strait of Hormuz each year, representing about 6% of its total imports.As of March, 15 of Japan's 36 nuclear reactors were operating, as that sector recovers from the multiple impacts of the Fukushima disaster.They generate a combined 37 GW. Bringing the remainder online could cut Japan's LNG needs by 12.5 million tonnes, IEEFA said. Regulatory changes in early April were introduced, facilitating more restarts.Backing up its argument that more coal and nuclear, both less flexible power sources, could increase curtailment of renewables, IEEFA said that each nuclear restart in Japan has been followed by a reduction in renewables generation.Curtailments in Japan have risen to 1.9 terrawatt hours by 2023, up from 100 GWh in 2018. In the first half of 2025, curtailments were faster still at 1.7 terrawatt hours for a six-month period.The fact that output from coal and nuclear can not rapidly be increased or slowed means it can be difficult to make room for renewable supply on the grid when its output rises.IEEFA said that limitations in Japan's grid infrastructure is an additional constraint that limits absorption of renewable power and led to a situation in March where it curtailed renewables while importing power from abroad.IEEFA suggests that the addition of battery storage to the grid could go some way to boosting its flexibility.Curtailment of renewables output has another inherent problem in that it leads to a less favourable economic case for later additions of zero carbon generation capacity, the report said, all the more so because Japan does not compensate renewables suppliers for curtailments, a practice common in Europe.Developers are adding battery storage as a work-around to that, securing contracts that remunerate battery-discharged electricity instead of directly generated then consumed electricity.The addition of batteries adds to project costs however at a time when investor interest has yet to turn into large scale deployment, with erosion of revenue support measures a further deterrent, IEEFA said.
Research
UOB Kay Hian Upgrades Hana Microelectronics to Buy from Hold; Price Target is THB38
Hana Microelectronics (BKK:HANA) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of 25.44 Thai baht, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
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