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Market Chatter: Possible US, Iran Near Deal Ties $20 Billion Asset Release to Uranium Surrender

-- The US and Iran are negotiating a three-page framework to end the conflict, including a proposal to release up to $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Tehran relinquishing its stockpile of enriched uranium, Axios reported on Friday, citing multiple US officials and sources briefed on the talks.

The talks have reportedly made steady progress in recent days, though significant differences remain. A potential agreement along these lines could bring an end to hostilities, but risks backlash from Iran critics in Washington and among US allies, Axios reported.

Donald Trump said Thursday that American and Iranian negotiators are expected to meet for a second round of talks this weekend.

At the center of the negotiations is Iran's stockpile of nearly 2,000 kilograms of enriched uranium, including roughly 450 kg enriched to 60% purity. US officials say a key objective is ensuring Iran cannot access or use that material.

Iran, meanwhile, is said to be seeking financial relief. The sides are negotiating both the fate of the uranium stockpile and the scale and conditions of sanctions relief, including how unfrozen funds could be used.

Earlier in the talks, the US had proposed releasing $6 billion for humanitarian purchases, while Iran sought $27 billion. The current figure under discussion is about $20 billion, though one US official described the proposal as just one option among several.

Disagreements persist over the handling of Iran's nuclear material. Washington has pushed for the removal of all enriched uranium from Iran, while Tehran has proposed "down-blending" it domestically. A compromise under consideration would involve shipping some highly enriched uranium to a third country while converting the remainder inside Iran under international supervision.

Axios reported that the draft memorandum of understanding also includes a proposed "voluntary" moratorium on uranium enrichment. The US has called for a 20-year halt, while Iran has countered with a five-year pause.

Under the draft terms, Iran would be permitted to operate nuclear research reactors for medical isotope production, but would commit to keeping all nuclear facilities above ground. Existing underground sites would remain inactive.

Subsequent to the publication of the Axios report, Trump posted on Truth Social, "The USA will get all nuclear 'dust,' created by our great B2 Bombers - No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form."

He added that the deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, but said that the US will "separately work with Lebanon," and deal with the Hezbollah situation "in an appropriate manner."

"Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer," he said, adding that the US had "prohibited" them from doing so.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told, "Only announcements from President Trump or the White House - not anonymous sources - should be taken as fact. Productive conversations with Iran continue, but we will not negotiate via the press."

(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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