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FINWIRES

US Oil Update: Crude Rise as US-Iran Talks Uncertainty, Hormuz Blockade Fuel Supply Fears

-- Crude oil futures rose in after-hours trading on Thursday as uncertainty surrounding the second round of US-Iran peace talks and a prolonged disruption to shipping via the Strait of Hormuz stoked concerns over global supply.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 2.08% to $93.19 per barrel, while Brent futures gained 3.57% to $98.32/bbl.

On Thursday, President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone about prospects for the US and Iran to sign a permanent ceasefire deal, as the two sides discuss an extended truce ahead of its expiration next week.

Trump said without providing evidence that Tehran has agreed to give up the enriched uranium.

"It's looking very good that we're going to make a deal with Iran, and it's going to be a good deal," Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday.

However, Iranian officials are reportedly skeptical about the US' commitment to fair negotiations, casting doubt on the prospects for a new round of talks despite reports of a possible meeting this weekend.

Tehran believes that, due to Washington's alleged breach of commitments at the outset of the peace talks and its continued conduct to date, a potential next round of talks is unlikely to yield results, according to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency.

The two sides are reportedly considering returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as the coming weekend.

Ole R. Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB Research, said the situation is fast-moving, while maintaining SEB's base case that Brent will average $95/bbl for 2026 and $85/bbl and $80/bbl in 2027 and 2028, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict has caused unprecedented disruption to global energy markets amid the double blockade of the Hormuz, a strategic waterway that typically carries about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

ING analysts said that as buyers shift toward US barrels, the domestic market is set to tighten as long as Middle East disruptions persist, likely prompting a supply response from US producers.

However, the analysts said that the local drilling activity has barely moved since the start of the conflict, which has disrupted about 13 million barrels per day.

The US Central Command has imposed a blockade to cut off Iranian traffic, while Tehran keeps the strategic waterway closed to most other ships. Kpler strategists said vessel traffic via the Hormuz has increased from last month's unusually low levels, with crossings rising and activity extending across a broader mix of vessel types and cargoes.

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