-- US natural gas futures extended gains in after-hours trading on Thursday, supported by shifting weather forecasts that prompted late-session buying after a larger-than-expected storage build.
The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous benchmark each climbed 2.41% to settle at $2.673 per million British thermal units.
Barchart said prices moved higher late Thursday as a mixed weather outlook triggered short-covering. It cited the Commodity Weather Group as saying forecasts shifted cooler across the eastern two-thirds of the US through Apr. 20, while above-average temperatures are expected in the eastern US and Upper Midwest from Apr. 21-25.
Earlier on Thursday, the US Energy Information Administration reported its third consecutive weekly inventory increase, stating that stockpiles in underground storage rose by 59 billion cubic feet to 1,970 Bcf for the week ending Apr. 10. The build exceeded market expectations for a 55 Bcf increase, according to data from Investing.com.
Inventories were now 126 Bcf above year-ago levels and 108 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,862 Bcf, though they remain within the historical five-year range, the EIA said. The latest injection also surpassed last year's 22 Bcf build and the five-year average increase of 38 Bcf.
On the supply side, US lower-48 dry gas production was estimated at 110.7 Bcf per day on Thursday, up 3.3% year over year, Barchart said, citing BNEF. Demand in the lower 48 states was 70.0 Bcf per day, down 4.3% from a year earlier. Estimated LNG net flows to export terminals were 19.9 Bcf per day, unchanged week over week.
Gelber & Associates said supply, US production plus Canadian imports, was running at 114 Bcf per day against demand of 105 Bcf per day. On the demand side, power burn has improved to 32 Bcf per day on a weekly basis, but that support has been offset by a sharp drop in residential and commercial demand to 13.5 Bcf per day from 20.8 Bcf per day last week as heating demand continues to decline.
"With the storage surplus widening and the broader balance still comfortable, the front of the curve looks likely to stay under pressure unless weather can generate a more durable demand response," Gelber & Associates said early Thursday.