-- "Clearly, the market continues to struggle amid several headwinds, including soft job markets, economic uncertainty, falling population growth, and strained affordability," TD Economics said Tuesday after a "soft" performance in Canadian home sales for March, that following a string of four straight monthly declines.
With these challenges in place, 2026 is shaping up to be another modest year for Canadian housing. Loose supply/demand balances should keep downwardly pressuring prices in B.C. and Ontario. Elsewhere, price growth should be firmer, but likely cool as the year progresses.
TD noted Canadian existing home sales were "essentially flat" in easing 0.1% month over month in March. Sales were unchanged in British Columbia, Quebec and Manitoba, declined in Alberta (down 5% month over month) while they increased in Ontario (+1.9% month over month). Elsewhere, sales rose "solidly" in Saskatchewan (+10% month over month), and fell across most of the Atlantic.
New listings were also flat during the month. With new listings and sales both barely moving, the sales-to-new listings ratio stayed at 47.8% in March. "This is well below the long-term average and signals modest price growth moving forward", noted the bank.
Average home prices were also flat in March, while the MLS home price index, a more 'like for like' measure, declined 0.4% m/m, and was down 4.7% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units were down 0.3% m/m, while condo prices fell 0.9% m/m.