FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Economic Activity Up in Most Districts, Inflation Generally Moderate Outside Energy, Beige Book Shows

-- US economic activity was up in most of the Federal Reserve Districts since the last Beige Book report, but there was weakness in some regions and energy price gains were widespread, the Federal Reserve's most recent update released Wednesday showed.

"Overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while two Districts reported little change and two Districts reported slight to modest declines," the Beige Book showed. "The conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture."

Manufacturing activity posted small gains while consumer spending was up slightly, even with winter weather and higher fuel prices.

Energy activity received a boost from higher oil prices, but uncertainty remained. The overall business outlook showed widespread uncertainty about future conditions.

Employment was steady to slightly higher, except for a decline in one district. Labor demand was stable in most districts, with mostly replacement hiring and minimal layoffs, but there was increased demand for temporary workers.

The availability of labor improved somewhat, but there were still issues finding skilled workers in some sectors.

"While most Districts indicated that AI had not yet significantly impacted overall staffing levels, some noted that AI-driven productivity improvements had enabled many firms to delay or reduce hiring," the Beige Book showed.

Wages were up at a modest to moderate pace, with wage competition muted outside of some trades and health care.

Price growth was generally moderate overall, but input costs, particularly for energy products, outpaced selling prices.

"Energy and fuel costs rose sharply in all Districts, attributed to the Middle East conflict, leading to higher freight and shipping costs and higher prices for plastics, fertilizers, and other petroleum-based products," the Beige Book showed, adding that input costs were also higher outside of energy.

The report was prepared at the New York Fed based on information collected on or before April 6, before the release of the March consumer price report on April 10.

Related Articles

Research

Research Alert: Ewbc: Q1 Earnings Beat As Revenue Growth Outperforms

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:EWBC posted strong Q1 2026 results with operating EPS of $2.57 vs. $2.08 a year ago, $0.10 above consensus. Q1 revenue of $774M beat consensus by 3% and rose 12% Y/Y and 2% Q/Q. It was another record quarter as the bank reported record levels of loans, deposits, and fee income, while maintaining healthy credit quality. Net interest income outperformed with 2% Q/Q growth while the net interest margin improved 8 bps to 3.49%, driven by a 21-bp decline in deposit costs to 2.84% that more than offset a 9-bp decrease in loan yields. Balance sheet growth remained robust with total loans reaching a record $58B (+2% Q/Q, +7% Y/Y) and deposits hitting $69B (+3% Q/Q, +9% Y/Y). Loan growth was well diversified across commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, and residential mortgage portfolios. Fee income surged 13% Q/Q to record levels, with wealth management fees more than doubling. The bank's funding optimization efforts continued to bear fruit in the competitive environment.

$EWBC
Oil & Energy

Hormuz Disruptions Deepen as Oil Prices Rebound and Recovery Timelines Slip, Wood Mackenzie Says

Strait of Hormuz flows remain sharply constrained, with vessel traffic far below normal 170 daily levels and energy markets reacting to ongoing disruption, Wood Mackenzie said Tuesday.Wood Mackenzie said the waterway remains effectively restricted despite ceasefire signals, with uncertainty over safe passage continuing to deter shipping activity.Although the US and Iran are moving toward renewed talks, both sides remain far apart on terms, raising the risk of prolonged disruption to Gulf energy exports.A two-week ceasefire announced on April 7 and a subsequent 10-day pause in Lebanon had briefly lifted optimism around easing tensions, Wood Mackenzie added.However, two Indian vessels were forced to turn back over the weekend after coming under fire while attempting to transit the strait, underscoring ongoing risks.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned ships against moving in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, saying, "approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered co-operation with the enemy."Traffic had risen modestly after the ceasefire, with about 20 vessels transiting daily, but this remains far below the roughly 170 ships seen in February, according to Wood Mackenzie.That limited recovery has reversed, with minimal vessel movement recorded on Sunday, signaling continued disruption across oil, gas, and chemicals markets.Oil prices initially fell after the ceasefire, with Brent dropping about 14% from around $110 to below $95 per barrel, and later reaching just above $86, according to the report.Prices rebounded, with Brent June futures rising about 5% to around $95 per barrel, while European gas prices climbed to 61.5 euros ($72.21) per megawatt hour before easing to 40 euros.The United States has tightened its blockade, seizing a cargo vessel and increasing pressure on Iran-linked shipping, while both sides exchanged sharper rhetoric over the weekend, Wood Mackenzie said.Tasnim, a media outlet affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, identified several locations that could "enter the conflict zone" if hostilities resume, including the Bab al Mandeb Strait.It also named Saudi Aramco assets and key oil terminals in Yanbu and Fujairah, which serve as alternative routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, Wood Mackenzie added.Wood Mackenzie said a peace deal could allow some tankers to resume movement quickly, but full restoration of normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may take until the end of June, citing Alan Gelder, senior vice president.Liquefied natural gas exports could see an initial surge after a peace deal, but a full return to normal operations would take longer, Wood Mackenzie said.Massimo Di Odoardo at Wood Mackenzie said restarting Qatar's LNG output could take three to four weeks for the South complex, while recovery of northern facilities would require a longer timeframe.Rising tensions between the United States and Iran have cast doubt on recovery timelines, with prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz threatening deeper imbalances in global energy markets, Wood Mackenzie said.Brent crude has averaged about $85 per barrel in 2026, warning that prices near $90 could push global growth below 2% and into recession territory, said Peter Martin at Wood Mackenzie.

Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Buy Rating On Shares Of Quest Diagnostics

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We keep our 12-month price target at $235. This is based on a forward P/E of 21.9x our 2026 EPS estimate, a premium to DGX's three-year forward average of 16.8x due to our view of strengthening sales and earnings growth, backed by higher health care utilization trends and some regulatory relief due to postponement of lab reimbursement cuts until at least 2027. We think lab testing providers remain a relatively well-positioned area within health care given lower policy risks, supportive testing demand, and attractive earnings growth potential. On a compounded annual basis from 2025-2028, we expect near 8% EPS growth, raising our 2026 EPS to $10.73 from $10.60 and 2027 EPS to $11.50 from $11.42. We also anticipate additional smaller M&A opportunities, along with healthy dividend increases (recent 7.5% boost; shares yield 1.7%) as cash flow generation remains supportive over the near term.

$DGX