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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Fall to Six-Week Low on Potential Resumption of US-Iran Talks

-- European natural gas futures extended losses in after-hours trade on Wednesday as optimism grew over a potential second round of US-Iran talks that could ease geopolitical tensions and improve supply prospects.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract declined 4.83% to 41.27 euros ($48.71) per megawatt-hour, while U.K. NBP futures dropped 4.68% to 103.66 British pence ($1.41) per therm.

Prices slipped below 42 euros per megawatt-hour, hitting their lowest level in more than six weeks and continuing the previous session's decline, as sentiment improved on signs of renewed diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, Trading Economics said on Wednesday.

Prices weakened after US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that talks with Iran could resume within days. Prices remained under pressure on Wednesday despite media reports that Iran threatened to halt regional trade in response to a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani mediators were also reportedly working to revive negotiations and preserve a cease-fire ahead of its expiration next week.

Additional downside pressure came from weather forecasts predicting warmer temperatures across Europe, which is expected to curb heating demand in the coming weeks. Lower demand and lower prices are expected to make it easier to restock EU gas inventories, which remain just below 30% of capacity, roughly five percentage points lower than a year earlier, Gas Infrastructure Europe reported.

In contrast, prices in North Asia rose and approached $20/MMBtu amid ongoing supply disruptions. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to prolong outages that have effectively removed about one-fifth of global LNG supply from the market, ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said on Wednesday.

The disruptions have pushed Asian LNG imports to their lowest levels since 2020. Indian Oil Corp and GAIL India Ltd did not award tenders for April and May spot cargoes, while China's gas imports declined in March, Hynes added.

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