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FINWIRES

Middle East Conflict to Drive Oil Demand Contraction This Year, IEA Says

-- The International Energy Agency on Tuesday forecast global oil demand to turn negative this year due to the Middle East conflict, penciling in the sharpest consumption decline in the second quarter since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The agency now forecasts demand to drop by 80,000 barrels a day this year, compared with a 640,000-barrel rise predicted last month.

Oil consumption is anticipated to shrink by 1.5 million barrels a day in the second quarter, representing the steepest plunge since COVID-19, the IEA said. Demand is expected to contract by 800,000 barrels per day year over year in March and by 2.3 million barrels this month, the IEA said.

"Initially, the deepest cuts in oil use have come in the Middle East and Asia Pacific, mainly for naphtha, LPG and jet fuel," according to the IEA report. "However, demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist."

Energy prices have soared in the aftermath of the US-Israel war with Iran that have curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. While Washington and Tehran have agreed to a temporary ceasefire, the two sides were unable to reach a deal during negotiations in Pakistan over the weekend.

Brent crude declined 4% to $95.40 a barrel in Tuesday trading, while West Texas Intermediate fell 6.7% to $92.42.

"Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy," the IEA said. "The prospects for a lasting negotiated settlement to the conflict remain unclear at this stage."

On Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its second-quarter oil demand forecast, but maintained its full-year estimates amid expectations for a rebound in the second half.

The US navy on Monday began a blockade of maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports.

Global oil supply plunged by 10.1 million barrels a day to 97 million barrels last month, amid Tehran's attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and restrictions to tanker movements through the strait, according to the agency. In March, it forecast supply to drop by 8 million barrels for the month.

Last month, the IEA agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil amid concerns around supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.

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Strait of Hormuz flows remain sharply constrained, with vessel traffic far below normal 170 daily levels and energy markets reacting to ongoing disruption, Wood Mackenzie said Tuesday.Wood Mackenzie said the waterway remains effectively restricted despite ceasefire signals, with uncertainty over safe passage continuing to deter shipping activity.Although the US and Iran are moving toward renewed talks, both sides remain far apart on terms, raising the risk of prolonged disruption to Gulf energy exports.A two-week ceasefire announced on April 7 and a subsequent 10-day pause in Lebanon had briefly lifted optimism around easing tensions, Wood Mackenzie added.However, two Indian vessels were forced to turn back over the weekend after coming under fire while attempting to transit the strait, underscoring ongoing risks.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned ships against moving in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, saying, "approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered co-operation with the enemy."Traffic had risen modestly after the ceasefire, with about 20 vessels transiting daily, but this remains far below the roughly 170 ships seen in February, according to Wood Mackenzie.That limited recovery has reversed, with minimal vessel movement recorded on Sunday, signaling continued disruption across oil, gas, and chemicals markets.Oil prices initially fell after the ceasefire, with Brent dropping about 14% from around $110 to below $95 per barrel, and later reaching just above $86, according to the report.Prices rebounded, with Brent June futures rising about 5% to around $95 per barrel, while European gas prices climbed to 61.5 euros ($72.21) per megawatt hour before easing to 40 euros.The United States has tightened its blockade, seizing a cargo vessel and increasing pressure on Iran-linked shipping, while both sides exchanged sharper rhetoric over the weekend, Wood Mackenzie said.Tasnim, a media outlet affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, identified several locations that could "enter the conflict zone" if hostilities resume, including the Bab al Mandeb Strait.It also named Saudi Aramco assets and key oil terminals in Yanbu and Fujairah, which serve as alternative routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, Wood Mackenzie added.Wood Mackenzie said a peace deal could allow some tankers to resume movement quickly, but full restoration of normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may take until the end of June, citing Alan Gelder, senior vice president.Liquefied natural gas exports could see an initial surge after a peace deal, but a full return to normal operations would take longer, Wood Mackenzie said.Massimo Di Odoardo at Wood Mackenzie said restarting Qatar's LNG output could take three to four weeks for the South complex, while recovery of northern facilities would require a longer timeframe.Rising tensions between the United States and Iran have cast doubt on recovery timelines, with prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz threatening deeper imbalances in global energy markets, Wood Mackenzie said.Brent crude has averaged about $85 per barrel in 2026, warning that prices near $90 could push global growth below 2% and into recession territory, said Peter Martin at Wood Mackenzie.

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