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RBC Says USD/CAD Direction Hinges On Iran Headlines As Yields Hold Steady

-- RBC Capital Markets said an on-consensus March employment report in an otherwise quiet week on the domestic calendar has helped Government of Canada yields finish the week close to where they ended last week, despite the continued uncertainty in the Middle East.

With little on the data calendar next week and this morning's US/CA data unlikely to move the needle for both the Fed and Bank of Canada, USD/CAD's near-term direction is likely to be a function of whether markets are pricing an escalation (USD-higher) or a de-escalation (USD-lower), RBC said in its CAD Weekly Soundbites on Friday.

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On the BoC, RBC said the central bank has been clear that the starting point matters for responding to the recent oil price spikes and knock-on impacts due to the Iran conflict. In particular, core inflation trending to target and excess slack in the Canadian economy afford the BoC some time to assess any potential second-order impacts.

The recent rise in wage growth looks more due to compositional changes and should be looked through by the BoC, RBC said, adding it continues to see no change from the BoC in 2026 and hikes starting in 2027.

On spreads, RBC said despite continued volatility, CA/US spreads continue to move sideways over the medium-term, with the 10-year marginally more negative on the week at -86bp.

From a technical perspective, George Davis at RBC said the uptrend in CA 10-year yields came to an end on March 31 via a bullish trend reversal below 3.50%. This favours a move toward 3.36% initially, with additional resistance coming in at 3.25%. Initial support is located at 3.53%, with a return above 3.62% required to trigger a new bearish phase.

Key Things To Watch

In Canada, RBC said Monday sees three federal byelections, including two in traditional Liberal strongholds in Toronto. Ahead of these, the latest floor-crosser from the Conservatives to the governing Liberals give the latter a 171-169 parliamentary advantage, meaning two wins will give them a clear, though slight, majority.

RBC said there is a plethora of second-tier data next week as well, including February manufacturing sales on Wednesday, February wholesale trade on Wednesday, March existing home sales on Thursday and March housing starts on Friday.

Globally, RBC said focus is on headlines related to the Iran conflict. Data wise, there will be March PPI in the US on Tuesday, March employment in Australia on Wednesday, Q1 GDP and March economic activity indicators in China on Wednesday, and February monthly GDP in the UK on Thursday.

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Oil & Energy

Hormuz Disruptions Deepen as Oil Prices Rebound and Recovery Timelines Slip, Wood Mackenzie Says

Strait of Hormuz flows remain sharply constrained, with vessel traffic far below normal 170 daily levels and energy markets reacting to ongoing disruption, Wood Mackenzie said Tuesday.Wood Mackenzie said the waterway remains effectively restricted despite ceasefire signals, with uncertainty over safe passage continuing to deter shipping activity.Although the US and Iran are moving toward renewed talks, both sides remain far apart on terms, raising the risk of prolonged disruption to Gulf energy exports.A two-week ceasefire announced on April 7 and a subsequent 10-day pause in Lebanon had briefly lifted optimism around easing tensions, Wood Mackenzie added.However, two Indian vessels were forced to turn back over the weekend after coming under fire while attempting to transit the strait, underscoring ongoing risks.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned ships against moving in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, saying, "approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered co-operation with the enemy."Traffic had risen modestly after the ceasefire, with about 20 vessels transiting daily, but this remains far below the roughly 170 ships seen in February, according to Wood Mackenzie.That limited recovery has reversed, with minimal vessel movement recorded on Sunday, signaling continued disruption across oil, gas, and chemicals markets.Oil prices initially fell after the ceasefire, with Brent dropping about 14% from around $110 to below $95 per barrel, and later reaching just above $86, according to the report.Prices rebounded, with Brent June futures rising about 5% to around $95 per barrel, while European gas prices climbed to 61.5 euros ($72.21) per megawatt hour before easing to 40 euros.The United States has tightened its blockade, seizing a cargo vessel and increasing pressure on Iran-linked shipping, while both sides exchanged sharper rhetoric over the weekend, Wood Mackenzie said.Tasnim, a media outlet affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, identified several locations that could "enter the conflict zone" if hostilities resume, including the Bab al Mandeb Strait.It also named Saudi Aramco assets and key oil terminals in Yanbu and Fujairah, which serve as alternative routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, Wood Mackenzie added.Wood Mackenzie said a peace deal could allow some tankers to resume movement quickly, but full restoration of normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may take until the end of June, citing Alan Gelder, senior vice president.Liquefied natural gas exports could see an initial surge after a peace deal, but a full return to normal operations would take longer, Wood Mackenzie said.Massimo Di Odoardo at Wood Mackenzie said restarting Qatar's LNG output could take three to four weeks for the South complex, while recovery of northern facilities would require a longer timeframe.Rising tensions between the United States and Iran have cast doubt on recovery timelines, with prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz threatening deeper imbalances in global energy markets, Wood Mackenzie said.Brent crude has averaged about $85 per barrel in 2026, warning that prices near $90 could push global growth below 2% and into recession territory, said Peter Martin at Wood Mackenzie.

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