-- 多倫多證券交易所週四收低,七個交易日以來首度下跌。下跌的原因包括部分獲利回吐,以及對中東持續地緣政治緊張局勢的擔憂,以及近期油價飆升加劇全球經濟面臨的關稅相關壓力,這些因素都令市場對通膨的擔憂持續存在。 S&P/TSX綜合指數收跌142.86點,跌幅0.4%,報33,477.71點。儘管電池金屬指數上漲4.5%,限制了整體跌幅,但S&P/TSX綜合指數仍下跌了142.86點,跌幅0.4%。電信板塊領跌,下跌近3.4%;資訊科技板塊下跌近2.1%。投資者正在權衡通膨風險,而聯準會會議紀要顯示,如果通膨持續高於目標水平,官員們對升息持開放態度。科技股對利率變動較為敏感,因為它們依賴高額資本支出。利率上升會增加借貸成本,並可能抑制對創新和擴張的投資。 加拿大皇家銀行經濟部在其關於美國的專題分析中指出,距離美國政府宣布對所有貿易夥伴加徵關稅以減少貿易不平衡的「解放日」已過去一年多。但加拿大皇家銀行表示,儘管貿易轉移,貿易逆差並未縮小。 加拿大皇家銀行補充道,目前,所有人的目光都集中在一個新的衝擊:中東衝突。俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後,油價飆升至接近2022年高點。該銀行表示:“儘管如此,關稅的影響仍在持續,油價飆升將加劇原有的關稅價格壓力,導致核心通膨和總體通膨同步上升。” 另根據一份與此相關但對加拿大人更為積極的報告顯示,加拿大皇家銀行指出,隨著美國跨境旅行減少,加拿大人對美國針對其某些行業加徵關稅以及特朗普總統稱加拿大為“第51個州”的言論感到憤怒,加拿大的旅行模式正在持續調整。 加拿大皇家銀行補充道,前往美國的旅行持續減少,但前往加拿大境內其他目的地以及海外旅行的成長正在逐漸抵消這一影響。該銀行指出,2025年赴美旅遊人數將下降25.4%,至2,910萬人次,疲軟態勢將持續到2026年初。原本可能用於海外消費的資金正重新投入國內,預計2025年旅遊總支出將成長1.7%。 加拿大皇家銀行(RBC)也指出,由於消費支出較多留在國內,這項轉變使加拿大在2025年仍維持旅遊服務淨出口國的地位。旅遊業GDP在第四季成長4.8%,超過了整體經濟0.6%的萎縮幅度,連續第三季跑贏大盤。 大宗商品方面,由於伊朗繼續封鎖霍爾木茲海峽,西德克薩斯中質原油(WTI)週四收高。在以色列表示將與黎巴嫩展開談判後,WTI價格從盤中高點回落。伊朗先前一直堅稱,與美國達成的為期兩週的停火協議中包含停止以色列對黎巴嫩襲擊的承諾。 5月交割的WTI原油期貨收盤上漲3.46美元,報每桶97.87美元,盤中一度觸及102.70美元。 6月交割的布蘭特原油期貨最新上漲0.96美元,報每桶95.71美元。 週四午後,由於美國公佈的關鍵通膨指標上升,美元走軟,加之美伊雙方就為期兩週的停火協議條款爭論不休,黃金價格走高。 5月交割的黃金期貨上漲36.10美元,至每盎司4,813.30美元。
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