-- 彭博社週四發布的一份分析報告稱,受全球供應中斷推動需求成長的影響,美國原油出口量預計將在5月達到每日500萬桶。 分析報告顯示,4月美國墨西哥灣沿岸的原油出口量已接近每日490萬桶,高於3月的約397萬桶。 報告指出,這一成長反映了海外需求的強勁,尤其是來自尋求替代中東原油供應緊張的買家的需求。 分析師預計,在越來越多的超大型原油運輸船(VLCC)在該地區裝載原油以滿足強勁的出口需求的推動下,5月的出口將進一步上升。 Kpler大宗商品研究主管馬特史密斯表示,分析報告顯示,在亞洲持續強勁的購買需求的支撐下,5月份的出口量可能超過每日500萬桶,超過此前450萬桶的峰值。 分析報告指出,在全球市場面臨嚴重供應緊張之際,美國原油出口在穩定地緣政治動盪下的原油供應方面發揮關鍵作用。 隨著夏季需求臨近,出口成長可能迫使美國煉油商支付更高的價格以維持供應,而汽油價格超過每加侖4美元可能會在中期選舉前加劇政治壓力。 根據美國能源資訊署(EIA)的數據,出口量曾短暫接近500萬桶/日,但未能維持一個月以上,分析顯示,5月份可能是出口量首次持續接近該門檻。 分析也指出,5月約有28艘超級油輪已預訂裝載原油,遠高於通常每月同期5艘的水平。 一些預測表明,如果目前的船舶調度趨勢保持不變,在亞洲持續購買需求的支撐下,出口量可能會攀升至530萬桶/日。 分析引述彭博社的一份報告稱,最近一次運輸中,超大型油輪「亞洲進步六號」(Asian Progress VI)已確定從西方石油公司(Occidental Petroleum)向東亞運送原油,費用約為1,900萬美元。 分析指出,儘管需求強勁,但美國出口體系已接近產能極限,物流的挑戰開始限制進一步成長。 分析還指出,如果沒有額外的運力,有限的船舶可用性、小型支線船舶的短缺以及不斷上漲的運費可能會使出口量限制在550萬桶/日左右。
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