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羅森伯格研究公司表示,今天「最令人好奇的進展」是交易員為何仍然相信加拿大央行的下一步舉措將是升息。

-- 羅森伯格研究公司在周三“戴夫早間新聞”節目中就加拿大經濟發表評論稱,今天“最令人費解的進展”是,交易員們為何仍然相信加拿大央行下一步會加息,“或者說,會持續加息”。 羅森伯格研究公司諷刺地問道:“消費者信心剛剛跌至11個月以來的最低點,那麼為什麼不把利率也列入抑製本地經濟的因素呢?” 該公司指出,在伊朗戰爭爆發之前,加拿大根本沒有通膨問題。 研究指出,過去一個月,認為經濟狀況改善的加拿大人比例幾乎減半,從27%降至僅15%。而且,加拿大經濟四年來首次在兩個月內減少了超過10萬個工作機會。 「這不是加拿大央行升息的絕佳時機嗎?」報告指出,同時也提到,3月大多倫多地區(GTA)的房屋銷售量比過去10年的平均水平低了52%。 報告稱:“因此,在伊朗戰爭爆發之前,加拿大央行的寬鬆政策無異於徒勞無功,因為當國內消費者的資產負債表背負著接近歷史最高水平的債務收入比時,刺激信貸活動就變得異常困難。” 羅森伯格研究公司進一步問道:擔心加拿大的通膨?那麼通貨緊縮呢?報告指出,嚴峻的現實是,過去一年大多倫多地區的平均房價下跌了7%,而房屋資產佔家庭資產負債表的8.5兆加元(相當於名義國內生產毛額的2.5倍)。隨著大量房屋湧入市場,新掛牌房源年增11.5%,房價預計還會進一步下跌。 羅森伯格表示,並非只有他一個人認為加拿大央行不會升息,因為外匯市場也做出了同樣的反應,加幣(CAD 或 loonie)兌美元匯率四個月來首次跌至 1.39 美元(低於 72 美分)。

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