-- 麥格理集團首席經濟學家大衛多伊爾在周一公佈消費者物價指數數據後表示，加拿大3月的通膨指標表現不一。 多伊爾指出，受汽油價格上漲的影響，整體通膨率較去年同期加速至2.4%。平均通膨率（剔除食品和能源價格後）較上季上漲0.2%，較去年同期上漲2.25%。 他也指出，傳統核心通膨率（剔除食品和能源價格後）較上季持平，較去年同期上漲1.9%。他表示，同比指標的走勢受到去年臨時性消費稅/統一銷售稅減免政策帶來的基數效應的影響。 麥格理經濟學家表示，短期內，油價上漲帶來的核心通膨壓力可能會被產出缺口縮小、房地產市場疲軟以及近期加幣走強所抵銷。他預計，隨著經濟好轉和人口負成長，產出缺口縮小，今年晚些時候，核心通膨率可能會小幅走強。 多伊爾預測，加拿大央行未來幾個月將維持利率不變。這位經濟學家認為，隨著產出缺口縮小和失業率下降，加拿大央行的下一步措施將是升息。 麥格理銀行預計升息的基準時間仍為2026年第四季。他補充說：“如果與美國的貿易政策不確定性增加，和/或通膨上升幅度超出預期，則加息時間可能會推遲。”
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