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FINWIRES

韓國維持利率不變,仍為2.50%。

-- 由於中東衝突加劇了通膨壓力並給經濟成長帶來風險,韓國維持貨幣利率不變。 韓國央行週五發佈公告稱,決定將基準利率維持在2.50%不變。 這項決定與荷蘭國際集團(ING)先前的預測一致。 ING分析師Lynn Song和Min Joo Kang在4月2日的報告中指出,強勁的晶片需求有助於抵消大宗商品供應限制的影響,而政府措施正在緩解油價衝擊可能引發的通膨上升。 韓國央行在新聞稿中表示:“現有信息表明,在全球主要經濟體人工智能相關投資和財政擴張的支撐下,全球經濟繼續保持相對良好的增長勢頭。然而,受中東戰爭引發的能源價格上漲和供應限制的影響,預計經濟增長將放緩,通脹將上升。” 韓國央行預測,由於全球油價上漲,通膨率可能升至2%中高區間。韓國央行表示,3月消費者物價通膨率從上月的2%上升至2.2%,而民眾短期通膨預期溫和上升至2.7%。 美國總統川普威脅伊朗,除非霍爾木茲海峽重新開放,否則將摧毀該海峽。此後,美伊兩國在最後一刻達成協議,停火兩週。停火的影響尚待觀察,尤其是在長期和平條約前景不明朗的情況下。 澳新銀行表示,韓國央行的政策訊號並未暗示即將收緊貨幣政策。行長李昌鎔表示,鑑於伊朗戰爭持續時間和影響規模尚不明朗,現在討論升息「為時過早」。 澳新銀行亞洲經濟學家陳晶晶表示:“韓國央行仍保留多種選擇,任何加息都可能取決於價格衝擊是否持續並顯著推高通膨預期。” 澳新銀行堅持認為,韓國央行將在今年下半年升息 25 個基點。

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