-- 伍茲麥肯茲（Woods Mackenzie）週三表示，阿聯酋於5月1日退出歐佩克的決定不太可能在今年短期內緩解高油價，反而會加劇供應過剩的風險，並可能最早在2027年開始導致油價下跌。 阿聯酋退出歐佩克之際，正值其長期以來努力提高產量之時。此前，阿聯酋一直對歐佩克的配額感到不滿，並投入大量資金提升其潛在產量。阿聯酋是歐佩克第三大產油國，也是世界第七大石油出口國。取消配額限制將使其成為歐佩克的強勁競爭對手，一旦伊朗戰爭後的復甦完成，市場可能再次陷入供應過剩的局面。 「作為歐佩克第二大液體燃料產能國，阿聯酋的退出意義重大。然而，這並不完全出乎意料，因為阿聯酋和沙烏地阿拉伯之間的政治緊張局勢在過去幾年中不斷加劇，並在近幾個月伊朗衝突的背景下進一步惡化。即使霍爾木茲海峽重新開放，阿聯酋退出歐佩克對2026年市場基本面的影響也微乎其微。 該分析公司表示，明年阿聯酋開始與歐佩克、歐佩克+和其他產油國爭奪市場份額時，“將對歐佩克目前逐步取消自願減產的政策構成挑戰。如果緊張局勢升級，阿聯酋與歐佩克之間爭奪市場份額的競爭可能會導致中期油價大幅下跌。”
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