-- 根據阿格斯（Argus）週五發布的分析報告顯示，受美伊衝突影響，海灣地區每日約450萬桶的石油出口中斷，迫使買家轉向成本高昂的替代供應，亞洲正面臨嚴重的燃料短缺。 阿格斯指出，亞太地區通常會向西方市場出口燃料，但美伊衝突逆轉了這一趨勢，導致大量燃料從西方流入亞洲。 阿格斯引述Kpler的數據補充道，中間餾分油的變化最為顯著，預計4月份航空煤油和柴油的套利流入量將達到創紀錄的每日23.1萬桶，主要來自俄羅斯。 阿格斯補充說，相較之下，蘇伊士運河以西地區的燃料流入量在2025年僅為每日7,000桶，2024年也僅為每日1.5萬桶，凸顯了衝突造成的貿易格局劇變。 石腦油市場也已吸收了近300萬噸套利貨物，其中包括約300萬噸從蘇伊士運河以西裝船的貨物，以彌補霍爾木茲海峽每月300萬至400萬噸的典型供應缺口。 Argus表示，這些流入量仍然不足，因為亞洲每月消耗約600萬至700萬噸石腦油，迫使裂解裝置減產，並導致多家公司因原料持續短缺而宣布不可抗力。 汽油市場也呈現類似趨勢。 Kpler的航運數據顯示，亞太買家已從蘇伊士運河以西鎖定約11.9萬桶/日的套利貨物，預計5月到港，遠高於歷史水準。 報告指出，相較之下，2025年僅8,000桶/日，2024年為1.7萬桶/日。 分析指出，儘管有這些流入，但成品油裂解價差收窄並非完全源自於供應狀況的改善，而是由於市場情緒在早期停火談判中趨於緩和。 本週，汽油利潤率下降21%至每桶23.74美元，柴油利潤率下降12.9%至每桶54.56美元，航空煤油利潤率下降2.8%至每桶73.51美元，而石腦油裂解價差則暴跌32.15%至每噸212.03美元。 歐洲夏季駕車出遊高峰可能會加劇貨物競爭，迫使亞洲買家擴大東西向價差，以吸引來自西方市場的貨物。 然而，套利收益減弱，汽油東西向價差從4月1日的每桶12.15美元收窄至4月15日的每桶2.95美元，降低了流入亞洲的動力。 4月15日，天然氣油價差從4月1日的每噸130.91美元跌至每噸-76.16美元；同期，石腦油價差也從每噸100.75美元跌至每噸67.50美元，進一步限制了套利機會。 Argus引用市場參與者的話補充道，如果霍爾木茲海峽繼續關閉，煉油商可能需要加工替代原油或抑制需求，因為價差窄和運費高昂限制了可行的套利機會。 分析師警告稱，套利機會只是權宜之計，全球供應不足以完全取代海灣地區的出口，這意味著價格必須進一步上漲才能抑制需求或促使煉油廠提高產量。
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