-- 達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行的研究人員週五在一篇文章中指出，霍爾木茲海峽長達一個季度的關閉可能會使美國今年的通膨率上升0.6個百分點。 在美以與伊朗的戰爭蔓延至整個中東地區後，能源價格飆升。霍爾木茲海峽是重要的貿易通道，但實際上已被伊朗封鎖。 伊朗外交部長賽義德·阿巴斯·阿拉格奇週五表示，在以色列和黎巴嫩達成停火協議後，霍爾木茲海峽「完全開放」。他表示，在周四開始的為期10天的停火期間，海峽將保持開放。消息公佈後，原油價格暴跌。 麥格理資本全球策略主管維克托·什韋茨在一份報告中指出：“霍爾木茲海峽的開放得益於以色列和黎巴嫩之間的停火協議。然而，這只能算作一項臨時且脆弱的協議。” 達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行的分析假設，由於霍爾木茲海峽關閉一個季度，全球石油供應將出現15%的缺口。文章中的通膨數據指的是個人消費支出物價指數（PCE）。 文章作者指出：“在當前情景下，2026年第四季環比，總體PCE通膨率將上升0.6個百分點，核心PCE通膨率將上升0.2個百分點。” 假設霍爾木茲海峽關閉三個季度，達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行的報告顯示，美國整體通膨率將上升1.1個百分點，核心價格將上升0.3個百分點。 美國央行在周三發布的最新褐皮書中表示，自戰爭爆發以來，其大部分地區的物價上漲幅度較為溫和。上週公佈的官方數據顯示，3月消費者通膨率加速至近四年來的最高月度水準。 聯準會3月17日至18日會議紀要顯示，鑑於中東衝突加劇了通膨和就業風險，聯準會應「靈活」調整貨幣政策。 達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行的研究人員表示：“我們的分析涵蓋了各種可能的結果。通膨結果的差異源於對石油供應中斷性質的不同假設，這反映了公眾認知的差異。隨著中東地緣政治局勢的演變，每種情景的相關性可能會發生變化。”
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