-- 道明銀行(TD)的馬克·埃爾科勞(Marc Ercolao)週四表示,加拿大經濟在2025年第四季GDP出現萎縮後,2026年「有望迎來穩健開局」。他指出,根據2月的公佈數據和3月的初步預估值,2026年第一季的經濟成長率約為1.7%,與加拿大央行近期更新的經濟預測及其自身的預測基本一致。 埃爾科勞表示:“第一季度之後的增長走向對政策前景的影響,將比短期增長勢頭本身更為重要,因為加拿大經濟面臨著諸多複雜因素——最顯著的是貿易不確定性加劇,以及近期持續的中東衝突帶來的溢出效應。” 他補充說:“加拿大央行強調,這些因素給經濟前景帶來了雙重風險,政策仍然取決於數據,如果經濟增長或通膨與預期出現重大偏差,管理委員會將隨時準備做出應對。儘管如此,我們的基本預期仍然是,央行將在今年剩餘時間內維持政策利率不變。” 加拿大2月國內生產毛額月增0.2%,與加拿大統計局先前的預測及市場預期相符。 Ercolao指出,先前預測3月將維持零成長,批發和運輸業的進一步成長將被零售貿易以及採礦、石油和天然氣產業的下滑所抵消。
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