-- 据路透社援引伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）和Kpler的航运数据显示，周一，仅有两艘与伊朗有关联的油轮驶出波斯湾，其他船只则积极避开霍尔木兹海峡。此前，美国总统特朗普威胁要封锁伊朗港口。 周日，美国中央司令部在其X平台上发布公告称，将从周一上午10点（美国东部时间）开始封锁所有进出伊朗港口的船只。 公告还指出，美国的行动不会妨碍其他船只往返非伊朗港口途经霍尔木兹海峡的航行自由。 然而，这并未消除商船的担忧。悬挂马耳他国旗的超大型油轮“阿吉奥斯·法努里奥斯一号”（Agios Fanourios I）周日试图进入波斯湾，装载伊拉克巴士拉原油运往越南，但随后折返。 负责管理阿吉奥斯·法努里奥斯一号（Agios Fanourios I）的东地中海海运公司（Eastern Mediterranean Maritime）尚未回复的置评请求。 据船舶追踪数据显示，一艘悬挂利比里亚国旗的超大型原油运输船也同样空载航行，据称正驶往伊拉克巴士拉。 与此同时，伊朗威胁称，如果美国继续实施其计划中的海上封锁，伊朗将封锁波斯湾及其周边所有港口。据彭博社报道，伊朗武装部队周一发表声明警告称，周边地区港口的安全“要么人人享有，要么人人不享有”。 路透社援引一位高级石油官员的话报道称，伊朗预计将在未来两个月内将其受损的炼油和分销设施恢复到战前产能的70%至80%。 伊朗石油部副部长穆罕默德·萨迪克·阿齐米法尔告诉学生新闻网，维修工作已经开始，拉万炼油厂的部分设施预计将在未来10天内恢复生产。 伊朗能源部尚未回复就此事的置评请求。
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Crude Oil Prices Rise on Stalled U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
Crude oil prices rose on Monday as talks to end the war between the U.S. and Iran remain frozen and flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz continue to be disrupted.Brent crude at last look gained 2.7% to US$108.17/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.4% to $96.63/barrel. The U.S. and Iran appear to still be far apart on issues including Iran's nuclear ambitions and the reopening of the strait, Reuters said in a Monday report."The diplomatic stand-off means that every day 10-13 million barrels of oil fail to get to the international market, worsening an already tight oil balance. Therefore, there is only one direction for oil prices to go," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga as saying.Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecasts to $90/barrel for Brent and $83/barrel for WTI, citing reduced output from the Middle East, the report said.
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Commodities
Japan Resorts to More Coal, Nuclear During Energy Crisis Sidelines Renewables, Says IEEFA
Japan is leaning on higher nuclear output and ramping up use of coal in power generation as contingency measures in the face of the global energy crisis, but these measures are simultaneously smothering renewables, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said on Monday.Temporary increased use of coal was decided upon to reduce the need for now-scarce LNG while the restart of some nuclear power plants is also providing additional resilience to supply shocks which have hit Asian nations hardest.IEEFA said this risks displacing domestic renewable energy which can supply just as much energy security but lower cost and it could also increase curtailment and undermine investment in more renewables, up-ending progress on decarbonization.Most of Japan's coal imports, about 71%, come from Australia, making it a safe option that reduces exposure to disrupted Middle Eastern logistics, the IEEFA report noted.But a shortage of diesel for plant operations at J-Power's Matsuura 2 gigawatt coal-fired power station slashed its output by 50% while the JFE Steel Fukuyama facility was halted over a shortage of heavy oil, underscoring that coal is not fully detached from oil and gas's geopolitical risk.Japan typically imports 4 million tons of LNG that pass through the Strait of Hormuz each year, representing about 6% of its total imports.As of March, 15 of Japan's 36 nuclear reactors were operating, as that sector recovers from the multiple impacts of the Fukushima disaster.They generate a combined 37 GW. Bringing the remainder online could cut Japan's LNG needs by 12.5 million tonnes, IEEFA said. Regulatory changes in early April were introduced, facilitating more restarts.Backing up its argument that more coal and nuclear, both less flexible power sources, could increase curtailment of renewables, IEEFA said that each nuclear restart in Japan has been followed by a reduction in renewables generation.Curtailments in Japan have risen to 1.9 terrawatt hours by 2023, up from 100 GWh in 2018. In the first half of 2025, curtailments were faster still at 1.7 terrawatt hours for a six-month period.The fact that output from coal and nuclear can not rapidly be increased or slowed means it can be difficult to make room for renewable supply on the grid when its output rises.IEEFA said that limitations in Japan's grid infrastructure is an additional constraint that limits absorption of renewable power and led to a situation in March where it curtailed renewables while importing power from abroad.IEEFA suggests that the addition of battery storage to the grid could go some way to boosting its flexibility.Curtailment of renewables output has another inherent problem in that it leads to a less favourable economic case for later additions of zero carbon generation capacity, the report said, all the more so because Japan does not compensate renewables suppliers for curtailments, a practice common in Europe.Developers are adding battery storage as a work-around to that, securing contracts that remunerate battery-discharged electricity instead of directly generated then consumed electricity.The addition of batteries adds to project costs however at a time when investor interest has yet to turn into large scale deployment, with erosion of revenue support measures a further deterrent, IEEFA said.
Research
UOB Kay Hian Upgrades Hana Microelectronics to Buy from Hold; Price Target is THB38
Hana Microelectronics (BKK:HANA) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of 25.44 Thai baht, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
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