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Research Alert: CFRA Lifts Opinion On Shares Of Cf Industries Holdings Inc. To Hold From Sell

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-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

We raise our 12-month target by $21 to $122, based on an EV/EBITDA of 7x our 2027 EBITDA estimate (rolled forward from 7.9x our 2026 EBITDA estimate). We raise our 2026 EPS view to $13.31 from $9.13 and 2027's to $9.20 from $7.33. Consensus EBITDA estimates for 2026 were revised 70% higher to $4.25B, up from $2.5B in March, implying 40% Y/Y growth driven by significant price increases across ammonia, urea, UAN, and AN due to conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. Our Hold rating reflects this favorable set up that is now priced into shares. CF trades at 5x 2026 EBITDA, well below its 10-year median of 8.7x, suggesting the market views current earnings as a cyclical peak. The multiple expands to 8x on lower 2027 estimates, indicating investors are already discounting normalization. Our 31% Y/Y EPS decline for 2027 anticipates margin pressure as elevated prices could introduce demand destruction and trigger global capacity additions. Our 7x target multiple balances today's trough valuation against cycle-end risks.

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