-- 独立系調査会社CFRAは、に対し、以下の調査レポートを提供しました。CFRAのアナリストは、以下のように見解をまとめています。12ヶ月目標株価を9ドル引き下げ、1,061ドルとします。これは、2027年度（9月期）EPS予想の26.2倍に相当し、TDGの過去3年間の平均予想PER33.7倍を下回ります。2026年度EPS予想は1.28ドル引き上げ、39.48ドルとし、2027年度EPS予想は40.49ドルで据え置きます。第2四半期の業績は好調（売上高18%増、2026年度ガイダンスの上方修正）でしたが、複数の逆風が見られます。総額32億ドルに上る最近の買収は利益率を低下させており、2026年度のEBITDAマージンは150ベーシスポイント低下すると予測しています。買収後の純負債/EBITDA比率は約5.9倍となり、2027年度以降の借り換えリスクを増大させる一方、金利負担の増加がEPS成長を抑制します。中東紛争は、2026年下半期の商用アフターマーケットに不確実性をもたらし、飛行活動や部品需要に遅れて影響を及ぼす可能性がある。成長鈍化の見通しを踏まえ、予想PERが2025年末の34.6倍から約28.5倍に低下した後も、収益倍率は引き続き縮小すると予想している。TransDigmは、単一供給源の高利益率防衛製品に依存しているため、価格をターゲットとした国防総省の調達改革の影響を特に受けやすい。
Related Articles
Commodities
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Pushing Oil Market Toward Rationing, Wells Fargo Says
The global oil market is moving toward physical shortages and possible demand rationing within the current quarter if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, Darrell Cronk, President of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in a Tuesday note.Cronk estimates cumulative supply losses tied to the conflict and partial closure of the key shipping route have reached about 600 million barrels as of early May. The disruption reflects not only delayed shipments, but also production effectively removed from the system through shut-ins, damage, and deferred output.With inventories and floating storage already significantly reduced, the market has limited remaining capacity to absorb additional shocks. If the strait does not reopen soon, the system may require demand destruction of 4 to 5 million barrels per day within weeks to restore balance.Supply disruptions are expected to take roughly 30 days to fully transmit through the system, meaning physical shortages at the consumer level could lag the initial shock.The most immediate stress is expected in natural gas and in intermediate- and medium-sour crude grades. Downstream impacts would likely emerge first in refined products, particularly diesel and jet fuel, before crude scarcity becomes visible to end users.A likely sequence of disruption would begin with petrochemicals and LPG, followed by diesel, affecting freight, agriculture, and industrial activity, and then jet fuel, which would constrain airline capacity and broader mobility.Import-dependent emerging markets are expected to experience the earliest strain, followed by Europe and other developed regions. Potential policy responses could include fuel allocation systems, airline capacity limits, and emergency consumption controls if shortages intensify.The US is partially insulated due to strong domestic production and Canadian pipeline imports, but global pricing would still transmit higher fuel costs domestically. Elevated energy prices could add to inflation pressures heading into the summer driving season and complicate interest rate expectations.Cronk also highlighted longer-term structural risks, noting that global energy supply chains have become less redundant and more vulnerable than widely assumed. It warned that prolonged disruption to infrastructure in the region could extend recovery timelines well beyond past oil shocks, even if geopolitical tensions ease.
Research
Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold On Shares Of Solventum Corporation
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lower our 12-month price target by $6 to $76, reflecting an 11.6x multiple of our 2026 EPS estimate, in line with the 11.6x historical forward average since spin-off from 3M in 2024. We raise our 2026 EPS estimate to $6.57 from $6.46 and lower our 2027 estimate by $0.03 to $7.03. We think SOLV continues to demonstrate progress with the separation from 3M, having exited over 50% of the transition service agreements with a target to exit over 90% by year-end. In addition, over 75% of system applications have been migrated, according to Q1 earnings commentary. The company maintained the $100M-$120M estimate of tariff headwinds against 2026 earnings. However, this estimate was made based on tariff dynamics prior to the U.S. Supreme Court's recent ruling against the IIEPA tariffs, adding some uncertainty to SOLV's near-term financial outlook, in our view, as the company awaits more information about potential refund dynamics.
$SOLV
International
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 7
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 83,387 layoff intentions in April, up from 60,620 in March, but down from 105,441 a year ago.The largest layoff count in April was in the technology sector, which accounted for 33,361 of those intentions, with increased use of artificial intelligence with the most cited reason for layoffs.The New York Fed's inflation expectations survey for April showed an increase in inflation expectations and uncertainty for the next year.Nonfarm productivity rose by 0.8% in Q1 after a 1.6% gain in Q4, reflecting slower output growth and a rebound in hours worked. Released at the same time, unit labor costs rose by 2.3% after a 4.6% gain, with the slower pace of productivity growth only partially offsetting a much slower pace of compensation growth.Construction spending rose by 0.6% in March after a 0.2% decline in February. Private residential construction rose by 1.7%, with single-family construction up 2.7%, multi-family construction up 0.3% and remodeling activity up 0.9%.Private nonresidential building fell by 0.2% and public construction declined by 0.2%.Consumer credit usage jumped by $24.8 billion in March after an $8.9 billion gain in February, with revolving credit use and nonrevolving credit use both rising at a faster rate than in the previous month.Initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 200,000 in the week ended May 2, but the four-week moving average fell by 4,500 to 203,250, a second straight decrease.Insured claims declined by 10,000 to 1.766 million in the week ended April 25.Natural gas stocks rose by 63 billion cubic feet to 2.205 trillion cubic feet in the week ended May 1, up 3.5% from a year earlier and 6.7% higher than the seasonal average for the current week over the previous five years.The Q2 GDP nowcast estimate from the Atlanta Fed is for a 3.7% gain, unrevised from the previous estimate.