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FINWIRES

調査速報:CFRAはトラクター・サプライ・カンパニー株の投資判断を「ホールド」に据え置き

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-- 独立系調査会社CFRAは、に対し、以下の調査レポートを提供しました。CFRAのアナリストは、以下のように見解をまとめています。目標株価を9ドル引き下げ、44ドルとします。これは、調整後利益に基づく予想PERを20.5倍とした場合です(過去3年間の平均PERは23.7倍、過去5年間の平均PERは25.2倍)。需要の減少に伴い、2026年の売上高予測を164億ドル(従来予想は163億ドル)、2027年の売上高予測を170億ドル(従来予想は174億ドル)に下方修正しました。TSCOは、取引件数の減少、コンパニオンアニマル分野における構造的な課題(既存店売上高に100ベーシスポイントのマイナス影響)、そしてコスト管理努力にもかかわらず利益率を圧迫し続けている関税圧力といった、重大な営業上の逆風に直面していると考えています。運転資本効率は悪化しており、在庫回転率は3.00倍から2.92倍に低下し、2026年第1四半期の営業キャッシュフローは58%減少した。これにより、既存店売上高の伸びが緩やかな中で、積極的な資本還元策の持続可能性が懸念されている。しかしながら、同社は健全なバランスシート、高い新規店舗生産性(65%~70%)、そして主要C.U.E.カテゴリーにおける堅調な業績を維持しており、消費者需要が安定すれば回復の基盤となる。

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