-- 西太平洋銀行週一發布的一份報告指出,隨著澳洲全國經濟成長放緩,各州經濟表現預計將在2026年及2027年分化。 昆士蘭州和西澳大利亞州這兩個礦業大州預計將再次引領其他地區,因為能源價格上漲將帶來可觀的收入成長,這將有助於家庭抵禦日益緊張的財務狀況,並有助於維持整體經濟活動的相對韌性。 該行預計,昆士蘭州的州內生產總值(GSP)增速將從2026年的2.6%放緩至2027年的年均1.8%,並在2028年回升至2%左右,奧運相關的基礎設施支出將進一步推動經濟成長。 與昆士蘭類似,西澳大利亞州預計房價上漲將透過財富效應支撐近期需求。西太平洋銀行預計,西澳大利亞的地區生產總值(GSP)成長率將從2026年的約2.4%放緩至2027年的1.8%,然後在2028年回升至2.4%。 西太平洋銀行表示,鑑於公共和私人經濟活動的強勁表現,南澳大利亞州也處於相對有利的地位。 然而,西太平洋銀行指出,以消費為主導的新南威爾斯和維多利亞州預計將表現不佳,其中維多利亞州是唯一預計到2028年人均消費水準將低於2019年水準的州。 該銀行預計,新南威爾斯州的地區生產總值(GSP)成長率將從2026年的約1.9%放緩至2027年的0.8%,並預測維多利亞州的成長率將從2026年的約2%降至2027年的0.7%。 西太平洋銀行表示:“儘管2028年的降息最終應該能夠穩定經濟形勢,但全球衝擊持續的時間越長,各州之間的調整幅度可能就越大,也越不均衡。”
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