-- 蒙特利爾銀行(BMO)的道格拉斯·波特(Douglas Porter)表示,從週五公佈的加拿大就業數據中得出的最重要結論是,3月份的就業結果「出乎意料地」與往年「並無太大出人意料」。他補充說,總體而言,過去一年就業成長相當溫和,但可用勞動力的成長也同樣緩慢,從而維持了失業率的穩定。 波特表示,唯一真正的新消息是工資“似乎出現了大幅上漲”,加拿大央行將密切關注這一趨勢,尤其是在其已高度警惕能源價格上漲可能對整體通膨產生溢出效應的情況下。 波特指出,加拿大就業人數在經歷了2026年「艱難的開局」後,3月溫和地增加了14,100人。鑑於今年前兩個月就業崗位共減少了108,700個,沒有人會將這小幅回升誤認為是就業強勁的信號,尤其是在上個月全職工作崗位實際上略有下降的情況下。 不過,波特補充道,即使是小幅增長也是積極的信號,穩定的失業率也同樣如此,目前失業率維持在6.7%——實際上比一年前略低。 波特指出,在經歷了兩次大幅下降後,隨著勞動參與率趨於穩定,勞動力人口也小幅增長了15,000人,但過去一年勞動力人口僅增長了0.4%,略低於就業增長率。 波特表示,總體而言,週五公佈的勞動力調查結果「出乎意料地」接近市場普遍預期,在蒙特利爾銀行(BMO)的評分系統中獲得了57.1分的及格分數。 「這對加拿大央行的政策辯論幾乎不會產生任何影響,」他補充道。 波特指出一個「小插曲」:平均時薪意外飆升至4.7%的年增速,創一年多來新高,遠高於上月的3.9%。 “工資數據波動較大,但這次的漲幅相當顯著,值得密切關注。” 同時,他也指出,在經歷了2月的「大幅下滑」之後,總工時環比小幅增加0.2%。但第一季全年工時年化成長率仍下降了0.4%。波特表示,考慮到本季生產力的顯著提升,這項數據或許仍能與蒙特婁銀行對第一季國內生產毛額(GDP)1.5%的預期相符。
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