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蒙特利爾銀行表示,加元前景應有所改善,並將在年底前保持升值趨勢。

-- 蒙特利爾銀行(BMO)表示,在不斷升級的地緣政治和全球經濟風險以及聯準會降息預期減弱(美元走強)的背景下,油價上漲並未對加元(CAD 或 loonie)提供持久支撐。 該行補充道,即使市場繼續預期加拿大央行會升息,也未能提供持久支撐。自2月27日收盤以來,加元淨貶值1.5%,至1.385加元(0.722美元)左右。 但蒙特婁銀行表示,隨著伊朗衝突對美元的提振作用減弱,聯準會恢復降息,且加拿大央行長期維持利率不變,加幣前景可望改善。 該銀行表示,隨著加拿大經濟在遭受美國貿易政策的嚴重衝擊後復甦,預計加元將在2026年底前升值至1.33加元(0.752美元)。 不過,BMO補充道,貿易政策仍是加幣和加拿大整體經濟面臨的主要風險,美墨加協定(USMCA)的審查定於7月1日進行。 BMO的初步假設是,該協定不會續簽,任何一方也不會提前六個月發出退出通知。 相反,BMO預計未來將開始一系列年度談判,這可能會持續至少兩到三年。 同時,雖然新的第122條10%關稅僅適用於不符合USMCA規定的商品,但新的國家安全或行業關稅(第232條)也即將出台,而且加拿大已被列入針對不公平貿易行為的第301條調查名單。 BMO表示,美國貿易政策對加幣的影響可能會「迅速」加劇。

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