-- 受中東衝突導致基本商品價格(尤其是原油價格)大幅上漲的影響,菲律賓4月通膨率創下三年來最快成長。 菲律賓統計局週二公佈的數據顯示,4月消費者物價指數(CPI)較去年同期上漲7.2%。 3月份CPI上漲4.1%,預計4月將上漲1.4%。 目前的CPI漲幅高於彭博社調查的分析師和菲律賓中央銀行(Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas)先前預測的5.6%至6.4%。荷蘭國際集團(ING)先前預測的5%漲幅與實際數據相差甚遠。 通膨飆升的原因主要歸因於中東衝突導致油價飆升,以及食品、能源和運輸價格上漲。 菲律賓統計局(PSA)表示,交通運輸指數從3月的9.9%躍升21.4%,而公用事業、住房和其他燃料價格則是環比上漲,從4.7%上升到8.2%。食品和非酒精飲料價格上漲6%,從2.9%上升至8.2%。 根據菲律賓通訊社報道,經濟、規劃和發展部部長阿塞尼奧·巴利薩坎表示,在伊朗戰爭期間,能源部正在尋找替代能源,以確保燃料供應穩定。 巴利薩坎說:“由於中東衝突擾亂了燃料供應鏈,政府正在加大力度採取有針對性的干預措施,特別是緩解食品、能源和交通運輸價格上漲的壓力,同時確保國內供應的持續穩定。” 分析師預計,菲律賓央行將提高關鍵利率以應對高通膨。 4月份,基準利率調高了0.25個百分點至4.5%。 菲律賓群島銀行經濟學家 Emilio Neri Jr. 表示,央行可能會將利率上調超過通常的 25 個基點。同時,根據彭博新聞社報道,黎剎商業銀行首席經濟學家 Michael Ricafort 表示,央行可能被迫將利率上調 50 個基點。 報道稱,央行將於 6 月召開會議。
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