-- 受中东冲突加剧通胀压力、削弱消费和投资者信心的影响，菲律宾经济第一季度进一步萎缩，创下疫情以来最低水平。 菲律宾统计局周四公布的数据显示，第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长2.8%，低于上一季度的3%。 GDP增速低于市场预期的3.3%，也低于澳新银行（ANZ）预测的3.4%。路透社调查的分析师此前预测增幅为3.5%。 家庭消费增长3%，低于2025年第四季度的3.8%。衡量投资增长的指标——总资本形成下降3.3%，反映出投资者信心的下滑。 据路透社报道，经济规划部长阿塞尼奥·巴利萨坎在新闻发布会上将当前的GDP增长归因于伊朗战争对全球原油价格的影响，这场战争扰乱了国际供应链。 与此同时，政府支出有所改善，同比增长4.8%，高于上一季度的0.7%。在2025年结束前，政府曾因“幽灵项目”争议而缩减支出，尤其是在基础设施方面。“幽灵项目”是指一些用于不存在的防洪项目的资金受到质疑。 澳新银行经济学家桑杰·马图尔和考萨尼·巴萨克在一份报告中指出：“尽管政府支出略有改善，但菲律宾经济仍面临高通胀、增长乏力和持续的外部不利因素等挑战。总体而言，短期增长风险仍然偏向下行，尤其是在通胀居高不下或全球地缘政治局势恶化的情况下。” 此外，批发零售贸易，尤其是汽车和摩托车维修，是推动GDP增长的因素之一，同比增长4.6%。菲律宾统计局（PSA）表示，金融和保险业增长3.4%，公共管理和国防，特别是强制性社会保障，增长8.6%。 在主要经济部门中，服务业同比增长4.5%，但农业下滑0.2%，工业同比下降0.1%。 凯投宏观（Capital Economics）表示，菲律宾目前正经历滞胀，即GDP增长放缓且非常疲软，从而引发通货膨胀飙升。 凯投宏观在一份报告中指出：“即使中东危机很快结束，央行几乎肯定会在近期再次加息。”
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Snap First-Quarter Loss Narrows; Flags Ad Revenue Hit From North America Headwinds, Middle East Conflict
Snap's (SNAP) first-quarter loss narrowed more than market expectations, although the social media company saw persistent headwinds in its North America advertising business and recorded an up to $25 million impact from the Middle East conflict, sending its shares down early Thursday.The Snapchat parent reported a net loss of $0.05 a share for the quarter ended March, compared with a loss of $0.08 the year before, it said late Wednesday. The consensus on FactSet was for a GAAP loss of $0.07 per share. Revenue improved 12% to $1.53 billion, in line with the Street's view."In (the first quarter), we demonstrated substantial financial progress with revenue at the top end of our guidance range," Chief Financial Officer Derek Andersen said during an earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript. "More broadly, we believe (the first quarter) provides early evidence that the strategic framework we laid out last fall is beginning to translate into more durable revenue growth, a more efficient cost structure, and a clear path to net income profitability."Advertising revenue inclined 3% to $1.24 billion, mainly boosted by gains in direct response advertising revenue, the company said in an investor letter. However, the growth was partially offset by continued headwinds in the group's North America large client advertising business, as well as an impact of about $20 million to $25 million from the Middle East war in March, according to Snap.The stock fell 9.8% in the most recent premarket activity."Large advertisers in North America remained a headwind to advertising growth in (the first quarter)," Chief Executive Evan Spiegel said on the call. "We're not satisfied with that outcome, but we're beginning to see encouraging signs that this part of the business is improving."Other revenue surged 87% to $285 million. Daily active users rose 5% to 483 million, ahead of the average analyst estimate of 475.7 million. Average revenue per user advanced to $3.17 from $2.96 in the prior-year quarter, but missed the market's forecast of $3.21.For the ongoing quarter, the company anticipates revenue to come in between $1.52 billion and $1.55 billion. The Street is looking for $1.54 billion. The guidance assumes that the operating environment in the Middle East "remains consistent" relative to the "magnitude" of headwinds that Snap faced in March and April. The company cautioned that the trajectory of the geopolitical situation in the region is uncertain.The US and Iran are reportedly closing in on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end their war and establish a framework for nuclear negotiations.Snap's outlook also assumes no contribution from Perplexity as it "amicably" ended its relationship with the software firm in the first quarter.In November, the company announced it was partnering with Perplexity to integrate its AI-powered answer engine with the chat interface of Snapchat. Perplexity was set to pay Snap $400 million for one year as part of the deal.
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