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荷兰国际集团称,加拿大央行鸽派立场抑制加元汇率。

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-- ING表示,加拿大央行周三维持利率不变,仍为2.25%,符合预期。 ING指出,周三加拿大央行宣布利率决议后,美元/加元汇率短暂走强,但市场定价并未发生显著变化。 市场仍预期加拿大央行将在10月份的会议上加息25个基点,比ING的基准预期更为鹰派。 周三加拿大央行相对鸽派的表态支持了ING对美元/加元第二季度末汇率1.37的预测。鉴于股市韧性以及油价长期处于高位,ING认为该预测存在一定的下行风险。 然而,目前ING预计,6月份美墨加协定(CUSMA)重新谈判将带来较高的不确定性,导致美元/加元汇率波动加剧。 ING预计,加元在2026年下半年表现将有所改善,届时新的美墨加协定有望最终达成,美联储也应考虑降息。 该银行预测,到年底美元兑加元汇率将达到 1.34,但存在下行风险。

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