-- 週四，倫敦富時100指數收跌1.43%，英國地方選舉拉開序幕。 丹麥銀行表示，由於執政的工黨可能遭遇“重大挫折”，市場情緒低迷，這可能會加大首相基爾·斯塔默的辭職壓力。 貝倫貝格銀行表示：「工黨基層黨員將選出下一任黨魁，該黨魁將自動成為首相。因此，基爾·斯塔默的繼任者在經濟政策上可能會更加左傾。這增加了企業成本再次上升和/或財政政策更加寬鬆的風險，而這兩者都可能削弱我們預測中的降息以及隨之而來的GDP增長回升。」 在英國建築業，由於投入成本通膨上升，住宅和土木工程活動水準持續下降，4月份的低迷狀況進一步惡化。標普全球英國建築業採購經理人指數（PMI）錄得39.7，低於上月的45.6和Investing.com預測的45.8。 公司新聞方面，能源與服務公司森特理克（Centrica，股票代號：CNA.L）股價下跌5.32%，成為富時100指數成分股中跌幅第二大的股票。此前，該公司預計2026年零售EBITDA將降至預期範圍的下限，原因是天氣轉暖、大宗商品價格上漲以及住宅能源壞帳催收持續面臨挑戰。 相反，京東運動時尚（JD.L）股價上漲8.62%，領漲藍籌股指數。此前，該公司建議提高末期股息，原因是預計2026財年歸屬利潤將下降，但營收將年增。 德意志Numis研究公司表示：「京東體育2026財年的業績喜憂參半。2026財年稅前利潤符合預期，但第一季同比增速放緩至-2.3%。2027財年稅前利潤預期中位數比市場普遍預期低約4%。 “2027-2029財年三年自由現金流預期至少達到14億英鎊，這將提振市場信心，主要得益於公司嚴格控制資本支出和改善營運資本。”
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Commodities
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Pushing Oil Market Toward Rationing, Wells Fargo Says
The global oil market is moving toward physical shortages and possible demand rationing within the current quarter if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, Darrell Cronk, President of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in a Tuesday note.Cronk estimates cumulative supply losses tied to the conflict and partial closure of the key shipping route have reached about 600 million barrels as of early May. The disruption reflects not only delayed shipments, but also production effectively removed from the system through shut-ins, damage, and deferred output.With inventories and floating storage already significantly reduced, the market has limited remaining capacity to absorb additional shocks. If the strait does not reopen soon, the system may require demand destruction of 4 to 5 million barrels per day within weeks to restore balance.Supply disruptions are expected to take roughly 30 days to fully transmit through the system, meaning physical shortages at the consumer level could lag the initial shock.The most immediate stress is expected in natural gas and in intermediate- and medium-sour crude grades. Downstream impacts would likely emerge first in refined products, particularly diesel and jet fuel, before crude scarcity becomes visible to end users.A likely sequence of disruption would begin with petrochemicals and LPG, followed by diesel, affecting freight, agriculture, and industrial activity, and then jet fuel, which would constrain airline capacity and broader mobility.Import-dependent emerging markets are expected to experience the earliest strain, followed by Europe and other developed regions. Potential policy responses could include fuel allocation systems, airline capacity limits, and emergency consumption controls if shortages intensify.The US is partially insulated due to strong domestic production and Canadian pipeline imports, but global pricing would still transmit higher fuel costs domestically. Elevated energy prices could add to inflation pressures heading into the summer driving season and complicate interest rate expectations.Cronk also highlighted longer-term structural risks, noting that global energy supply chains have become less redundant and more vulnerable than widely assumed. It warned that prolonged disruption to infrastructure in the region could extend recovery timelines well beyond past oil shocks, even if geopolitical tensions ease.
Research
Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold On Shares Of Solventum Corporation
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lower our 12-month price target by $6 to $76, reflecting an 11.6x multiple of our 2026 EPS estimate, in line with the 11.6x historical forward average since spin-off from 3M in 2024. We raise our 2026 EPS estimate to $6.57 from $6.46 and lower our 2027 estimate by $0.03 to $7.03. We think SOLV continues to demonstrate progress with the separation from 3M, having exited over 50% of the transition service agreements with a target to exit over 90% by year-end. In addition, over 75% of system applications have been migrated, according to Q1 earnings commentary. The company maintained the $100M-$120M estimate of tariff headwinds against 2026 earnings. However, this estimate was made based on tariff dynamics prior to the U.S. Supreme Court's recent ruling against the IIEPA tariffs, adding some uncertainty to SOLV's near-term financial outlook, in our view, as the company awaits more information about potential refund dynamics.
$SOLV
International
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 7
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 83,387 layoff intentions in April, up from 60,620 in March, but down from 105,441 a year ago.The largest layoff count in April was in the technology sector, which accounted for 33,361 of those intentions, with increased use of artificial intelligence with the most cited reason for layoffs.The New York Fed's inflation expectations survey for April showed an increase in inflation expectations and uncertainty for the next year.Nonfarm productivity rose by 0.8% in Q1 after a 1.6% gain in Q4, reflecting slower output growth and a rebound in hours worked. Released at the same time, unit labor costs rose by 2.3% after a 4.6% gain, with the slower pace of productivity growth only partially offsetting a much slower pace of compensation growth.Construction spending rose by 0.6% in March after a 0.2% decline in February. Private residential construction rose by 1.7%, with single-family construction up 2.7%, multi-family construction up 0.3% and remodeling activity up 0.9%.Private nonresidential building fell by 0.2% and public construction declined by 0.2%.Consumer credit usage jumped by $24.8 billion in March after an $8.9 billion gain in February, with revolving credit use and nonrevolving credit use both rising at a faster rate than in the previous month.Initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 200,000 in the week ended May 2, but the four-week moving average fell by 4,500 to 203,250, a second straight decrease.Insured claims declined by 10,000 to 1.766 million in the week ended April 25.Natural gas stocks rose by 63 billion cubic feet to 2.205 trillion cubic feet in the week ended May 1, up 3.5% from a year earlier and 6.7% higher than the seasonal average for the current week over the previous five years.The Q2 GDP nowcast estimate from the Atlanta Fed is for a 3.7% gain, unrevised from the previous estimate.