-- 联合国开发计划署周二发布的最新评估报告显示,中东持续不断的军事冲突可能给亚太地区造成高达2990亿美元的经济损失,因为燃料、货运和投入成本的上涨将波及整个区域经济体。 报告指出,此次冲击正在削弱家庭购买力,加剧粮食不安全,使公共预算捉襟见肘,并损害民众生计,尤其是在那些严重依赖进口能源和食品的国家,以及那些受海湾贸易路线、劳动力市场和汇款流动影响的国家。 报告估计,在持续28天的冲突情景下,区域产出损失可能在970亿美元至2990亿美元之间,相当于国内生产总值的0.3%至0.8%,其中南亚受到的影响最为显著。 模拟结果显示,14个国家的约880万人可能陷入贫困,其中包括伊朗的500多万人,伊朗的贫困率可能从36%上升至41.5%。 这份截至4月9日编写的报告,汇集了联合国开发计划署22个国家办事处(涵盖36个国家)提供的信息,并结合了模型分析和外部数据。报告指出,结果将很大程度上取决于冲突的持续时间和强度,如果冲突持续,风险将进一步上升。
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